Grantee Research Project Results
2006 Progress Report: A Coupled Measurement-Modeling Approach to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates: Application to Future Air Quality Assessments
EPA Grant Number: R831454Title: A Coupled Measurement-Modeling Approach to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates: Application to Future Air Quality Assessments
Investigators: Mao, Huiting , Griffin, Robert J. , Sive, Barkley , Chen, Ming , Talbot, Robert , Varner, Ruth
Institution: University of New Hampshire
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2006
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2006 through December 31, 2007
Project Amount: $750,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Spatial Patterns in Air Pollution Emissions (2003) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air , Climate Change
Objective:
This investigation is focused on the northeastern U.S. with specific objectives to: (1) predict changes in regional climate that subsequently influence natural biogenic emissions and air quality, (2) quantify modifications in plant ecosystem composition due to changes in regional climate, (3) estimate regional biogenic emissions associated with a changing plant ecosystem and, (4) estimate aerosol loading, O3, NOx, hydrocarbons, and atmospheric oxidative capacity as a function of a changing regional climate and plant ecosystem. Our results will quantify changes in the level of critical atmospheric species under future climate scenarios for 2050–2100, and provide a basis to assess their potential societal impacts on human health and key economic factors.
Progress Summary:
During the third year of the project, we focused on the data analysis and modeling aspects of the project. We prioritized the analyses of measurements of CH3I, O3, carbonyl sulfide, vegetative and soil emissions of trace gases in the ambient and elevated CO2 environments to provide a comprehensive picture of diverse responses that the terrestrial system may have under increased CO2 levels. This is one aspect that is currently missing from future climate and air quality modeling research. In parallel, we have been working on the regional climate and air quality assessment under present and future climate conditions using our Regional Climate Modeling System and EPA CMAQ. Our data analysis work has identified the importance of natural terrestrial sources to the ambient level of CH3I measured at Duke Forest, NC and Thompson Farm, NH using measurements from the 2004 and 2005 intensives at Duke Forest and multi-year continuous data from UNH AIRMAP. We continued to look into the causes for increased O3 levels observed in the enhanced CO2 environment at Duke Forest. Our focus was on understanding the cause(s) for the increased O3 mixing ratios. We quantified the impact of different levels of key hydrocarbon species present in the two environmental Plots on in situ O3 production and forest uptake by Plot vegetation. We also investigated the impact of increased CO2 levels on carbonyl sulfide uptake by vegetation, which potentially can have significant influence on sulfate aerosol concentrations in the lower stratosphere, a potentially critical factor influencing the earth-tropospheric climate system.
On the modeling front, we finished two 5-year summertime climate simulations over North America for the present (1980–1984 AD) and for approximately doubled CO2 (2090–2094 AD), using our Regional Climate Modeling System driven by an archived transient simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM). The model results showed that temperature increased nearly everywhere in summer by 1.2 to 2.7°C. EOF analysis revealed that, compared to the present climate scenario, disturbance from a low pressure system will affect a large area from the Great Lakes to southeastern U.S., causing the low trough to be deeper in 2090. This result implies that future climate situations may favor pollutant outflow from the continent to the North Atlantic, as well as promote an intensified subtropical high which night lead to increased frequency of pollution episodes in the Northeast. Four month long seasonal runs using CMAQ have been conducted for five summers under the present and future climate conditions. We have analyzed the model output, evaluated present-day climate results against continuous ground-based and field campaign data. In addition, we compared O3 levels, the number of O3 episodes, and episode duration between the two climate conditions. More sensitivity runs are ongoing. One of the key points we found was that there were two distinctly different regimes with regard to O3 changes in the future scenario. In the regime south of 38°N and a bit more northward along the coastline, the averaged daily 1h-O3 maxima were increased by 10–30 ppbv or 20–60% compared to the present climate. The rest of the domain experienced much smaller increases (< 5 ppbv) and even decreases in O3 daily maxima. The preliminary results suggested that these two regimes of O3 changes were predominately determined by changes in climate, due to an intensified trough over the Northeast and the Bermuda high to the south.
Future Activities:
In the extended year of the project our major objectives will continue: (1) to quantify the apparent changes in the source/sink strengths of isoprene, monoterpenes, and selected sulfur and halogen compounds in the elevated CO2 Plot, (2) to quantify the impact of changes in the atmospheric abundance of these trace gases on air quality, (3) to examine meso-scale processes for present day and future climate and assessing changes in them, and (4) to assess present and future air quality in the Northeast due to climatically induced changes in vegetation and biogenic emissions. Specifically, our regional climate simulations will use a small domain with fine resolution to determine interannual variability in meso-scale processes. Specifically, roles of transient weather systems and persistence of quasi-static synoptic features, e.g., cyclone track, frequency, subtropical high intensity and temporal shift, will be considered. Combined with the long term observation in coastal New Hampshire under the support of AIRMAP, linkages between these meteorological phenomena and air quality over New Hampshire will be established using objective methods. We will aim to complete the ongoing in-depth analyses using the synthesized observational data sets from the 2004 and 2005 field campaigns. Several key findings have been identified, and papers will be prepared on these topics. No changes are expected in the project schedule over the next reporting period.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 33 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
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Chen J, Mao H, Talbot RW, Griffin RJ. Application of the CACM and MPMPO modules using the CMAQ model for the eastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2006;111(D23):D23S25 (12 pp.). |
R831454 (2005) R831454 (2006) R831454 (2007) R831454 (Final) R831082 (2006) R831082 (2007) R831082 (Final) |
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Mao H, Talbot R, Troop D, Johnson R, Businger S, Thompson AM. Smart balloon observations over the North Atlantic: O3 data analysis and modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2006;111(D23):D23S56, doi:10.1029/2005JD006507. |
R831454 (2005) R831454 (2006) R831454 (2007) R831454 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
vegetation type, NMHC’s, chemical transport, O3 precursors, EPA Region 1, Monitoring/Modeling, air sampling, biogenic ozone precursors, climate models, climate variability, climatic influence, ecological models,, RFA, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Scientific Discipline, Ecological Risk Assessment, particulate matter, Air Quality, Atmosphere, Environmental Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Air Pollution Effects, Atmospheric Sciences, Air Pollutants, climate change, Environmental Monitoring, aerosols, atmospheric dispersion models, biogenic emission modeling, Global Climate Change, ambient aerosol, airborne aerosols, climate model, ecosystem models, atmospheric models, global change, aerosol formation, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric transport, ecological models, emissions monitoring, climate models, environmental measurement, climate variability, air quality model, atmospheric aerosol particles, environmental stress, BVOCs, meteorology, ozone, ambient air pollution, air quality models, atmospheric particulate matter, greenhouse gases, climatic influence, greenhouse gas, modeling, air quality assessmentsProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.