Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Application of a Unified Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate GCM to Understand the Effects of Changing Climate and Global Anthropogenic Emissions on U.S. Air Quality
EPA Grant Number: R830959Title: Application of a Unified Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate GCM to Understand the Effects of Changing Climate and Global Anthropogenic Emissions on U.S. Air Quality
Investigators: Jacob, Daniel J. , Streets, David G. , Mickley, Loretta J. , Rind, David , Seinfeld, John , Fu, Joshua
Institution: Harvard University , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Tennessee , Argonne National Laboratory
Current Institution: Harvard University , Argonne National Laboratory , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Tennessee
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2005 (Extended to January 1, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2004 through January 1, 2005
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The Global Climate and Air Pollution (GCAP) project is an integrated assessment of the effects of global change, including changes in both climate and anthropogenic emissions, on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2000 to 2050. This project will represent one of the first attempts to examine the response of air pollution meteorology to climate change. At present, the sign and magnitude of this response are not known with confidence. The GCAP study will identify and quantify the contributing impacts from: (1) changes in atmospheric transport (e.g., mixing depths, frequency of stagnation episodes, regional ventilation, and intercontinental transport); (2) climate-sensitive natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors; and (3) climate-sensitive ozone and PM chemistry. It will lay the foundation for an investigation of the effects of climate change on exceedances of air quality standards through nesting of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model inside a global chemistry-aerosol transport model.
Progress Summary:
Harvard University has published a study suggesting that the severity and duration of summertime pollution episodes will increase over the Midwest and Northeast regions of the United States by 2050, resulting from a decline in the frequency of the cold fronts that sweep away pollution. The Argonne National Laboratory has completed the first model-based forecasts of future emissions of the primary carbonaceous aerosols: black carbon and organic carbon. The forecasts were driven by the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2, from the present-day to 2030 and 2050. Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS) has completed work on the new version of the 23-layer Global Climate Model III (GCM Model III), which features an improved boundary layer scheme. GISS has also run the model with observed climate forcing from 1950 to 2005; this will serve as the spin-up for the GCAP future climate simulation. Harvard University and Caltech are completing work on evaluating the GCAP simulation of present-day ozone and aerosol using the GISS Model III meteorological fields as input. Harvard University also is currently investigating the sensitivity of calculated ozone production and loss rates to emissions of nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons and to the stratospheric flux of ozone into the troposphere. This study will shed light on why present-day estimates of ozone production and loss rates appear to be increasing in the literature and will give us greater confidence in predicting future ozone concentrations. The University of Tennessee has completed work on a chemistry interface between Goddard Earth Observing System model (i.e., GEOS-CHEM) and CMAQ. The GCM/MM5 meteorological interface has also been developed.
Future Activities:
We will perform full chemistry simulations with the GCAP model for the present-day and future climates using meteorological fields provided by the GCM. We will conduct empirical orthogonal function analyses of ozone and PM regional variability in the United States using both observations and model output. Finally, we will supply GCAP initial and boundary conditions to the CMAQ regional model.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 23 publications | 12 publications in selected types | All 12 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Field BD, Rind D. Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters 2004;31(24):L24103 (4 pp.). |
R830959 (2004) R830959 (Final) |
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Streets DG, Bond TC, Lee T, Jang C. On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research--Atmospheres 2004;109(D24):D24212 (19 pp.). |
R830959 (2004) R830959 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
chemical transport, volatile organic compounds, VOCs, nitrogen oxides, sulfates, organics, pollution prevention, environmental chemistry, modeling, climate models, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, climate change, Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, atmospheric dispersion models, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, atmospheric models, aerosols, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www-as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/gcap Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.