Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Relating Cardiovascular Disease Risk to Ambient Air Pollutants Using Geographic Information Systems Technology and Bayesian Neural Networks: The AHSMOG Study
EPA Grant Number: R830547Title: Relating Cardiovascular Disease Risk to Ambient Air Pollutants Using Geographic Information Systems Technology and Bayesian Neural Networks: The AHSMOG Study
Investigators: Knutsen, Synnove F. , Beeson, Larry , Ghamsary, Mark , Soret, Samuel
Institution: Loma Linda University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: February 1, 2003 through December 31, 2006 (Extended to January 31, 2009)
Project Amount: $964,436
RFA: Epidemiologic Research on Health Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Particulate Matter and Other Air Pollutants (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Human Health , Particulate Matter , Air
Objective:
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Table 1.A.b. Risk of fatal CHD according to increments of PM2.5 and ozone. Single- and two-pollutant models.
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Model
|
Pollutant
(increment)
|
Combined
|
Males
|
Females
|
|
|
N=60,652
N (cases)=171
|
N=20,829
N (cases)=85
|
N=39,823
N (cases)=86
|
Single Pollutant Model
|
PM2.5
(10 µg/m3)
|
1.9 (1.27-2.84)
|
2.19 (1.25-3.85)
|
1.63 (0.92-2.9)
|
Ozone (10 ppb)
|
1.26 (0.92-1.73)
|
1.2 (0.77-1.88)
|
1.37 (0.88-2.13)
|
|
Two Pollutant Model
|
PM2.5
(10 µg/m3)
|
1.9 (1.27-2.84)
|
2.18 (1.24-3.83)
|
1.65 (0.93-2.93)
|
Ozone (10 ppb)
|
1.27 (0.92-1.75)
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1.2 (0.75-1.9)
|
1.38 (0.88-2.17)
|
Subgroup
|
N
|
All natural cause Mortality
N
|
Fatal CHD
N
|
Cardio-pulmonary death
N
|
> 64 yrs
|
6,050
|
3,219
|
856
|
2,006
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Prevalent CHD, stroke
|
906
|
679
|
285
|
518
|
Prevalent Diabetes
|
371*
|
279
|
97
|
187
|
Prevalent COPD
|
1,698
|
777
|
204
|
493
|
Past smokers
|
1,441
|
775
|
203
|
453
|
|
Increment
|
Fixed time period, 1973-77
|
4-year moving average
|
||
|
|
RR
|
95% CI
|
RR
|
95% CI
|
Single pollutant model
|
|
|
|
|
|
PM2.5
|
10 µg/m3
|
1.10
|
0.93-1.31
|
1.42
|
1.11-1.81
|
Ozone*
|
10 ppb
|
1.01
|
0.99-1.04
|
0.97
|
0.71-1.32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Two pollutant model
|
|
|
|
|
|
PM2.5
|
10 µg/m3
|
1.08
|
0.86-1.35
|
1.99
|
1.37-2.88
|
Ozone*
|
10 ppb
|
1.01
|
0.97-1.04
|
0.54
|
0.34-0.84
|
- Develop new indices of ambient air pollutants for the individual subjects in the AHSMOG Study using geographic information systems (GIS) technology and stochastic models that include error estimates of the indices.
- Develop non-linear statistical models using Bayesian neural networks to develop alternative analytical strategies for modeling the relationship between different ambient air pollutants and risk of CHD where several pollutants and latent (unobserved) and missing values can be incorporated.
- Compare new methods developed under approaches 2 and 3 to the classic or conventional methods previously used in the AHSMOG Study.
Cause of Death
|
Males
(2,278)
|
Females
(4,060)
|
Totals
(n= 6,338)
|
All natural cause (ICD9: 001-799)
|
1,218 (53.47)
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2,012 (49.6)
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3,230 (51.0)
|
Cardiopulmonary (ICD9: 401-440, 460-519)
|
743 (32.6)
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1,267 (31.2)
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2,010 (31.7)
|
CHD (ICD9: 410-414)
|
320 (14.1)
|
537 (13.2)
|
857 (13.5)
|
Total cancer (ICD9:140-172, 174-209)
|
242 (10.6)
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338 (8.3)
|
580 (9.2)
|
Nonmalignant respiratory disease
(ICD9:460-519)
|
127 (5.6)
|
166 (4.1)
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293 (4.6)
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Cause of Death
|
Males
(1,750)
|
Females
(3,080)
|
Totals
(n= 4,830)
|
All natural cause (ICD9: 001-799)
|
830 (47.4)
|
1329 (43.2)
|
2159 (44.7)
|
Cardiopulmonary (ICD9: 401-440, 460-519)
|
484 (27.7)
|
828 (26.9)
|
1312 (27.2)
|
CHD (ICD9: 410-414)
|
197 (11.3)
|
339 (11.0)
|
536 (11.1)
|
Total cancer (ICD9:140-172, 174-209)
|
176 (10.1)
|
228 (7.4)
|
404 (8.4)
|
Nonmalignant respiratory disease
(ICD9:460-519)
|
92 (5.3)
|
113 (3.67)
|
205 (4.2)
|
TABLE 6.B.c. All cause death, cardiovascular death, and other deaths in the AHSMOG Study, 1977-2006 according to age at time of death.
FEMALES |
Age at time of death
|
|||||
Underlying cause of death
|
25-49
|
50-59
|
60-69
|
70-79
|
80+
|
Total
|
All Natural Causes (ICD: 001 – 799)
|
10
|
42
|
170
|
497
|
1293
|
2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ischemic Heart Disease (ICD: 410 - 414)
|
0
|
4
|
27
|
122
|
384
|
537
|
Nonmalignant respiratory (ICD: 460-519)
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
31
|
123
|
166
|
Total Cancer deaths (ICD: 140-171, 174-208)
|
5
|
17
|
77
|
104
|
135
|
338
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Causes (ICD: 001 – 999)
|
12
|
45
|
176
|
510
|
1305
|
2048
|
MALES |
Age at time of death
|
|||||
Underlying cause of death
|
25-49
|
50-59
|
60-69
|
70-79
|
80+
|
Total
|
All Natural Causes (ICD: 001 – 799)
|
7
|
35
|
152
|
374
|
650
|
1218
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ischemic Heart Disease (ICD: 410 - 414)
|
0
|
11
|
48
|
96
|
165
|
320
|
Nonmalignant respiratory (ICD: 460-519)
|
0
|
3
|
7
|
28
|
89
|
127
|
Total Cancer deaths (ICD: 140-171, 174-208)
|
2
|
7
|
51
|
85
|
97
|
242
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Causes (ICD: 001 – 999)
|
11
|
42
|
163
|
387
|
670
|
1273
|
FEMALES |
Age at time of diagnosis
|
|||
|
< 60
|
60-79
|
80+
|
Total
|
All Cancer (ICD: 140-171, 174-208)
|
95
|
231
|
97
|
423
|
|
|
|
|
|
Respiratory cancer (ICD: 161-163)
|
2
|
9
|
9
|
20
|
Lung cancer (ICD: 162)
|
2
|
9
|
9
|
20
|
Breast cancer (ICD: 174)
|
41
|
81
|
23
|
145
|
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (ICD:196)
|
1
|
9
|
10
|
20
|
MALES |
Age at time of diagnosis
|
|||
|
< 60
|
60-79
|
80+
|
Total
|
All Cancer (ICD: 140-172, 174-209)
|
24
|
187
|
69
|
280
|
|
|
|
|
|
Respiratory cancer (ICD: 161-163)
|
0
|
16
|
5
|
21
|
Lung cancer (ICD: 162)
|
0
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
Prostate cancer (ICD: 185)
|
4
|
95
|
36
|
135
|
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (ICD:196)
|
7
|
16
|
4
|
27
|
Conclusions:
To date, one paper has been published, and 13 presentations have been given (including the two at ISEE in August 2009) at scientific meetings. Several papers are available in draft form or are being worked on by gradate students. Four doctoral students (Lie Hong Chen, David Shavlik, Rhonda Spencer Hwang and Shiva Metghalchi) are completing their dissertations addressing some of the aims of this study.
Journal Articles on this Report : 4 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 25 publications | 4 publications in selected types | All 4 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Chen LH, Knutsen SF, Shavlik D, Beeson WL, Petersen F, Ghamsary M, Abbey D. The association between fatal coronary heart disease and ambient particulate air pollution:are females at greater risk? Environmental Health Perspectives 2005;113(12):1723-1729. |
R830547 (2005) R830547 (2006) R830547 (2007) R830547 (Final) R827998 (Final) |
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Gharibvand L, Lawrence Beeson W, Shavlik D, Knutsen R, Ghamsary M, Soret S, Knutsen SF. The association between ambient fine particulate matter and incident adenocarcinoma subtype of lung cancer. Environmental Health 2017;16(1):71 (9 pp.). |
R830547 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Gharibvand L, Shavlik D, Ghamsary M, Beeson WL, Soret S, Knutsen R, Knutsen SF. The association between ambient fine particulate air pollution and lung cancer incidence: results from the AHSMOG-2 study. Environmental Health Perspectives 2017;125(3):378-384. |
R830547 (Final) |
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Spencer-Hwang R, Knutsen SF, Soret S, Ghamsary M, Beeson WL, Oda K, Shavlik D, Jaipaul N. Ambient air pollutants and risk of fatal coronary heart disease among kidney transplant recipients. American Journal of Kidney Diseases 2011;58(4):608-616. |
R830547 (Final) |
Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
Ambient air, ozone, particulate matter, exposure, risk, risk assessment, health effects, human health, sensitive populations, population, elderly, cumulative effects, susceptibility, epidemiology, modeling, monitoring, analytical, Bayesian neural networks, GIS, southwest, California, CARelevant Websites:
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2007 Progress Report
- 2006 Progress Report
- 2005 Progress Report
- 2004 Progress Report
- 2003 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
4 journal articles for this project