Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Modeling Effects of Alternative Landscape Design and Management on Water Quality and Biodiversity in Midwest Agricultural Watersheds
EPA Grant Number: R825335Title: Modeling Effects of Alternative Landscape Design and Management on Water Quality and Biodiversity in Midwest Agricultural Watersheds
Investigators: Santelmann, Mary
Institution: Oregon State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: January 1, 1997 through December 31, 1999 (Extended to December 31, 2000)
Project Amount: $1,228,521
RFA: Water and Watersheds Research (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water
Objective:
The major goals of this 3-year project have been: (1) generation of designed alternative future scenarios that explore a range of human land use and management choices for watersheds in the Corn Belt region of the United States; (2) development and calibration of models and tools to evaluate the alternative scenarios and compare potential impacts of future change on water quality, biodiversity, and cultural acceptability of the landscape to those who live and visit there; (3) evaluation of the scenarios using models and evaluative methods developed and/or calibrated for these watersheds; and (4) summarization of these results in an integrative assessment, and publication of the assessment and individual results in the appropriate peer-reviewed literature.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
In 1997, we accomplished the first goal (scenario development) and, in 1998 and 1999, we accomplished the second (model development and calibration). Also, in 1998?1999, scenario designs were translated into digital data consisting of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coverages for the watersheds, which were then overlain into the three primary future scenarios for each watershed. Each team worked to evaluate the scenarios during 1999. Research results were presented in contributed paper and poster sessions at the World Congress of the International Association for Landscape Ecology meeting (Snowmass, Colorado, July 29?August 3, 1999) and were the topic of two symposium presentations at that meeting. Technology transfer of methods and approaches developed on the project, as well as publication and presentation of the results from the project, have been the focus of the last and final year of the project.
Species-habitat association matrices for non-fish vertebrates, butterflies and plants, have been completed and reviewed by taxonomic experts of the region. Two Spatially Explicit Population Models (SEPMs) have been developed by the Iowa State University biodiversity team?one models single species response to changes in land cover and management, the other models response to landscape change for all mammal species found in the watershed, including effects of interspecific interactions. Results from application of these models to the future scenarios (as well as to artificial landscapes designed to explore effects of landscape structure on mammal communities) have been incorporated into three manuscripts (Clark and Danielson, in review; Clark, et al., a & b, in review). A third SEPM developed by Schumaker (1998) was used to study amphibian response to landscape change, resulting in a M.S. thesis (Rustigian, 1999) and research paper (Rustigian, et al., in review).
The water quality team finished calibration of the water quality model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool; Arnold, et al., 1997) for the study watersheds, and completed model runs for evaluation of the alternative futures. Results were written up and submitted to the Journal of the American Water Resources Association in February 2001. The water quality team has assisted others in the application of the ArcView version of SWAT (researchers at Iowa State University) and in monitoring design for use in applications of SWAT (the Klamath Tribe in Oregon, Sprague River watershed).
The economics team calibrated and ran the EPIC model for simulation of crop yields, used to estimate the economic profitability of the alternative futures for producers in these watersheds. These results formed the basis of another M.S. thesis (Coiner, 1999) and were published in a research paper in Ecological Economics (Coiner, et al., in press).
At our final all-project meeting (July 1999), we shared results of preliminary model runs on current land cover, the historic past, and the future scenarios. Methods and comparability of modeled results were discussed, collaboration was facilitated among investigators, and plans for publications were outlined. A book chapter discussing the use of future scenarios to incorporate ecological principles and guidelines into land use planning has been completed and is in press (Santelmann, et al., 2001). The project assessment paper, incorporating results from the individual design and assessment teams, was completed in March 2001, and was submitted to Nature in April (Santelmann, et al., in review).
The process of involving a diverse array of disciplinary experts in the iterative design and evaluation of alternative futures provided an effective framework for eliciting and maintaining highly interdisciplinary research on the potential effects of human management choices for agricultural landscapes (Nassauer and Corry, in preparation; Santelmann, et al., 2001).
Economic analyses of the spatial extent of these small watersheds (5,000?10,000 ha) indicated that some changes in land use and agricultural practices result in environmental improvements and increased profitability of the enterprise, whereas others involve tradeoffs between economic and environmental objectives. In addition, not all agricultural practices intended to bring environmental improvements lead to uniform improvement in all measures. There may be difficult tradeoffs among different components of environmental quality (e.g., water quality improvements and biodiversity improvements, or different components of water quality improvement (e.g., nitrate runoff vs. nitrate leaching) (Coiner, Wu, Polasky, 2001, in press).
Farmer interviews resulted in ranking of cultural preference of land use alternatives characteristic of each of the scenarios, and the development of a spatially-explicit method for quantifying cultural acceptability of the alternative future landscapes. A paper on the methods as well as the results of the interview studies is in preparation.
Results of the water quality model SWAT applied to the alternative futures, as well as the current landscape and a landscape representing the historic past, indicated that substantial decreases in nutrient and sediment export from agricultural watersheds could be achieved if practices involving input reductions and increases in perennial cover are employed over extensive areas of the agricultural landscape. Reductions in sediment export on the order of 35-60 percent relative to current exports, and reductions in nitrate export on the order of 30-60 percent could be possible under some management scenarios. However, in landscapes forecasted from current trends and currently prescribed best management practices (Scenario 1) only modest reductions in sediment export (10-15 percent) and a slight (but not statistically significant) increase in nitrate export are predicted (Vache, et al., in review).
Analyses of the response of native biodiversity to changes in land use and management indicate that landscapes designed to restore biodiversity could lead to substantial increases in habitat for native species. However, results of modeling community dynamics for mammal species indicate that establishing a few, isolated large biodiversity reserves may actually lead to interspecific interactions that decrease the potential long-term population viability of species that experience strong competitive interactions within these reserves. The contrasting responses predicted by different modeling approaches indicate the need for field research on responses of populations of native plants and animals to landscape change at the watershed level, ideally the establishment of long-term ecological research sites within agricultural ecosystems.
Integration of these results into an assessment to inform interested individuals from farmers to agricultural policymakers has been an important activity of the project. We have presented project results at professional symposia, to state and local agencies, and to others involved in environmental research in agricultural ecosystems. Development of project Web sites has been another important activity leading to dissemination of our results.
Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 23 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 7 journal articles |
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Coiner C, Wu J, Polasky S. Economic and environmental implications of alternative landscape designs in the Walnut Creek Watershed of Iowa. Ecological Economics 2001;38(1):119-139. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Green EK, Galatowitsch SM. Differences in wetland plant community establishment with additions of nitrate-N and invasive species (Phalaris arundinacea and Typha x glauca). Canadian Journal of Botany 2001;79(2):170-178. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Green EK, Galatowitsch SM. Effects of Phalaris arundinacea and nitrate-N addition on the establishment of wetland plant communities. Journal of Applied Ecology 2002;39(1):134-144. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Rustigian HL, Santelmann MV, Schumaker NH. Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics. Landscape Ecology 2003;18(1):65-81. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Santelmann MV, White D, Freemark K, Nassauer JI, Eilers JM, Vache KB, Danielson BJ, Corry RC, Clark ME, Polasky S, Cruse RM, Sifneos J, Rustigian H, Coiner C, Wu J, Debinski D. Assessing alternative futures for agriculture in Iowa, USA. Landscape Ecology 2004;19(4):357-374. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Vache KB, Eilers JM, Santelmann MV. Water quality modeling of alternative agricultural scenarios in the U.S. Corn Belt. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2002;38(3):773-787. |
R825335 (Final) |
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Wilson D, Urban M, Graves M, Morrison D. Beyond the economic: farmer practices and identities in Central Illinois, USA. Great Lakes Geographer 2003;10(1):21-33. |
R825335 (Final) R825306 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
future scenarios, agricultural watersheds, spatially-explicit modeling, biodiversity, water quality, integrated assessment, Midwest, Iowa, IA;, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Midwest, Water & Watershed, exploratory research environmental biology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, Economics, Monitoring/Modeling, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Human Health, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Watersheds, Ecological Indicators, aquatic, risk assessment, water resources, Iowa, ecological exposure, alternative urbanization scenarios, biodiversity, landscape units, predictive understanding, soil sediment, valuation of watersheds, agricultural watershed, runoff, sediment transport, terrestrial ecosystems, ecological modeling, modeling, agricultural watersheds, availability of water resources, biota diversity, transport models, aquatic ecosystems, lawn care practices, water quality, IA, species habitat matrices, alternative landscape design, design criteria, ecology assessment models, water management options, aquatic biota, forecasting, land useRelevant Websites:
http://www.snre.umich.edu/faculty-research/nassauer/
http://bufo.geo.orst.edu/tc/firma/ip/
http://www.public.iastate.edu/~meclark/
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.