Grantee Research Project Results

2003 Progress Report: Close-coupling of Ecosystem and Economic Models: Adaptation of Central U.S. Agriculture to Climate Change

EPA Grant Number: R828745
Title: Close-coupling of Ecosystem and Economic Models: Adaptation of Central U.S. Agriculture to Climate Change
Investigators: Antle, John M. , Capalbo, Susan M. , Elliot, Edward T. , Paustian, Keith , Mooney, Sian , Hunt, William
Current Investigators: Antle, John M. , Capalbo, Susan M. , Hunt, William , Paustian, Keith , Mooney, Sian , Hoagland, Kyle D.
Institution: Montana State University - Bozeman
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 2000 through September 1, 2003
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 2002 through September 1, 2003
Project Amount: $1,420,860
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Interactions between Human Activities and a Changing Climate (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change

Objective:

The objective of this research project is to significantly advance the state of the art in modeling impacts of climate change in agroecosystems by moving beyond the loose coupling of unrelated and independent disciplinary models. The specific objectives of this research project are to develop a conceptual framework for closer model coupling, and to implement the close coupling of an ecological model with an economic decision model.

Progress Summary:

We are investigating how our ability to simulate behavior in response to climate change is affected by the temporal and spatial scales of analysis, the degree of coupling of the models, and the dynamic properties of the models. This is being done for for one of the most important agroecosystems, the crop-based system of the Central United States. Specific accomplishments include:

Using previously developed software for coupling ecosystem and economic simulation models, it is possible to dynamically couple the models.
Alternative methods for simulating carbon sequestration rates produce different estimates of carbon sequestration potential. There is a tendency for the method that assumes systems are in equilibrium to overestimate carbon rates relative to systems that do not make that assumption.
Assembly of data for estimation and testing of farm-scale and county-scale models was completed.
Methods for close coupling of ecosystem and economic models were completed. A manuscript on these methods was prepared, presented at a conference, and submitted for publication.
Simulation of field-scale, county-scale, and major land resource area-scale models was implemented, using loosely coupled and closely coupled versions of the models.
A framework for analysis of multiple equilibria in agricultural systems was developed, and a draft manuscript was prepared.
Publications to report final results on scaling and model coupling were outlined.

Future Activities:

We will complete analysis and prepare publications in 2004-2005.

Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views
Other project views:	All 34 publications	9 publications in selected types	All 8 journal articles

Publications
Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Antle JM, Capalbo SM, Elliott ET, Paustian KH. Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO₂ fertilization: an integrated assessment approach. Climatic Change 2004;64(3):289-315.	R828745 (2003) R828745 (Final)	Abstract: SpringerLink-Abstract Exit
Journal Article	Antle JM, Stoorvogel JJ. Incorporating systems dynamics and spatial heterogeneity in integrated assessment of agricultural production systems. Environment and Development Economics 2006;11(1):39-58.	R828745 (2003) R828745 (Final)	Abstract: Cambridge Journals-Abstract Exit Other: Econ Papers-Abstract Exit
Journal Article	Stoorvogel JJ, Antle JM, Crissman CC, Bowen W. The tradeoff analysis model: integrated bio-physical and economic modeling of agricultural production systems. Agricultural Systems 2004;80(1):43-66.	R828745 (2003) R828745 (Final)	Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract Exit

Supplemental Keywords:

close coupling, ecological models, economic models, climate change, agriculture, agroecosystems, air, ecosystem protection, environmental exposure and risk, agronomy, ecological effects, ecological indicators, ecology, economics, ecosystem protection, ecosystem assessment, ecosystem indicators, social science, climate change, agriculture ecosystems, anthropogenic stress, circulation model, climate change impact, climate models, ecological exposure, ecosystem sustainability, environmental stressors, farming, global warming, human activities, meteorology, modeling ecological risk, sensitivity., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecosystem Protection, Economics, Ecology, Agronomy, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Social Science, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, climate change, Environmental Monitoring, circulation model, socioeconomic indicators, agriculture ecosystems, environmental stressors, sensitivity, modeling ecological risk, Global Climate Change, economic models, global warming, ecological models, climate models, ecosystem sustainability, human activities, ecological exposure, farming, meteorology, agroeconomics, agriculture, anthropogenic stress, agro ecosystems

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.