Grantee Research Project Results
1999 Progress Report: Integrated Assessment of the Public Health Effects of Climate Change for the United States
EPA Grant Number: R824995Title: Integrated Assessment of the Public Health Effects of Climate Change for the United States
Investigators: Patz, J. F. , Ellis, Hugh
Current Investigators: Patz, J. F.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: October 1, 1996 through September 30, 1999
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1998 through September 30, 1999
Project Amount: $2,700,728
RFA: Global Climate (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The objectives are to: (1) assess the potential impact of climate change on important regional public health endpoints, including vector-borne diseases (Hantavirus, Dengue, and Lyme disease) and water-borne diseases (Cryptosporidiosis and Cholera); and (2) appropriately characterize and communicate this information to support policy development and analysis.
Progress Summary:
Hantavirus. The Hantavirus/El Ni?o analysis showed that high-risk areas for Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome can be predicted based on satellite-generated risk maps of land cover over 6 months in advance (Glass, et al., 2000). Predicted risk paralleled vegetative growth, supporting the hypothesis that heavy rainfall from El Ni?o in 1992 was associated with higher rodent populations that triggered the Hantavirus outbreak in 1993. Satellite images from 1995, a non-El Ni?o "control" year, showed low risk in the region, whereas the images from the 1998 strong El Ni?o again showed high-risk areas. Trapping mice in the field (collectors blinded to risk category), validated these satellite generated risk maps with mouse populations directly related to risk level. Our methods, developed in partnership with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Indian Health Service already are being implemented for disease prevention by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS).
Dengue. Model runs have been completed for Brownsville, TX, using the Hadley Center HADCM2 and VEMAP interpolated climate projections for the years 2030, 2060, and 2100. Dengue transmission simulation shows very high sensitivity to relative humidity and temperature (e.g., excessive dryness limits mosquito survival). Also, while warm temperatures generally increase transmission dynamics, the extreme high temperatures predicted by HADCM2 for Texas diminish the risk of dengue in this location. It is expected that the study sites on the island of Puerto Rico may show different results.
Lyme Disease. Tick survey data have been analyzed for 15 locales in the mid-Atlantic region. Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) data provide information on landcover based on satellite imagery, and along with 10-year retrospective climate values (1984-1993), were entered into the Lyme simulation model to determine baseline Lyme disease risk via the vertebrate hosts involved in maintaining its life cycle?white-tailed deer and white-footed mice. With the exception of a few sites (which were only lightly forested), deer carriage of the Ixodes tick approaches 100 percent and mouse carriage of the Lyme spirochete varied between 60-80 percent for the baseline model runs. Under climate change scenarios from global climate models (GCMs) generated from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Max Plank transient 2 (2020) and transient 3 (2050), the risk of infection increases for mice in most locales, and tick carriage remains high for deer. Transient 2 models yielded slightly higher infection rates than transient 3 models.
Cryptosporidiosis. The historical analysis of extreme precipitation and water-borne disease outbreaks by watershed in the United States from 1948 to 1994 shows spatial clustering of outbreaks indicating high-risk geographical regions by water basin. The fall season contained the highest proportion (40 percent) of surface water-related outbreaks preceded by heavy rainfall events; winter, spring, and summer percentages were 25 percent, 35 percent, and 32 percent, respectively. For surface water-identified outbreaks, there is a statistically significant association between occurrence of an extreme precipitation event and the disease outbreaks. Climate downscaling from the Max Planck GCM is complete for the Mid-Atlantic Region (Easterling, 1999), and we have calibrated successfully a hydrological run-off model for a watershed in Lancaster County (Szilagyi and Parlange, 1999; Najjar, 1999). Random sampling of 50 farms within the 100-year floodplain of a major creek in Lancaster County found over 60 percent tested positive for Cryptosporidium oocysts in field manure samples (Graczyk, et al., 2000), and calculations for the amount of infected manure in the region are completed. For 76 watersheds in Pennsylvania, we have meteorological, geological, agricultural, and microbiological (Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts) variables entered into an Arc/Info database. Economic analysis for baseline costs of cryptosporidiosis cases has been completed (Kocagil, et al., 1998).
Cholera. In the Chesapeake Bay, preliminary analysis shows a strong correlation between warmer water temperature and the presence of Vibrio cholerae. We also have examined long-term (~ 50 year) trends in salinity in the Chesapeake Bay. While salinity is a function of stream flow, a strong trend in the residual has been observed, which may be a signal of sea level rise. At our Lima, Peru study site, a cholera epidemic occurred in 1998, with more than 1,000 reported cases. Surveillance of sewage water for cholera was strongly associated with ambient temperature and peak number of cases lagged 3 weeks behind a peak in ambient temperature. Also, time-series analysis for Lima, Peru, from 1993-1998 showed that during the warm winter temperatures of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o, the number of children hospitalized for severe diarrhea was two-fold over expected numbers (Checkley, et al., 2000). Regarding the 1991 epidemic in Peru, 11 patients have been identified as probably the first indicator cases, occurring from late October 1990 to January 1991.
Communication of Findings. While all project-specific analyses are being completed, the integrated framework is being communicated though our Web site (http://www.jhu.edu/~climate ).
Future Activities:
We plan to finalize all incomplete analyses, submit findings to peer-reviewed journals, and post key results on our Web site. Project-specific activities include: incorporating the past year's human Hantavirus case data into analysis for our validation study to be submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. For dengue/climate change modeling, matrices of downscaled climate data for the Southeast will be applied to the Puerto Rico study sites, and human immunity data will be obtained from the CDC dengue laboratory in San Juan. The last component of the cryptosporidiosis risk model that links rainfall and run-off now can be completed with recently acquired microbiological data obtained from water treatment facilities. The next step in the cost analysis is to explore the maximum contaminant load (MCL), monitoring and reporting violation data to determine characteristics for 7,200 water systems in the Mid-Atlantic Region. For cholera, we have obtained sea surface data for 1997 and SeaWifs satellite data for algal blooms in 1998. Also, water samples of algae are still pending from our Peruvian collaborators. Plankton characterization will be completed for Chesapeake Bay, Mexico, and Peruvian sites; for the Chesapeake Bay, linkage to salinity and algae projections (per Najjar, et al.) will occur for Vibrio cholera projections. While all project-specific analyses are being completed, the overall findings will be incorporated into an integrated framework communicated though our Web site.
Journal Articles on this Report : 14 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 129 publications | 47 publications in selected types | All 45 journal articles |
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Benson K, Kocagil P, Shortle J. Climate change and health in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research 2000;14(3):245-253. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Checkley W, Epstein LD, Gilman RH, Figueroa D, Cama RI, Patz JA, Black RE. Effects of El Niño and ambient temperature on hospital admissions for diarrhoeal diseases in Peruvian children. Lancet 2000;355(9202):442-450. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Curriero FC, Lele S. A composite likelihood approach to semivariogram estimation. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 1999;4(1):9-28. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S. The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. American Journal of Public Health 2001;91(8):1194-1199. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) |
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Easterling DR. Development of regional climate scenarios using a downscaling approach. Climatic Change 1999;41(3-4):615-634. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Gibson JR, Najjar RG. The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate-induced changes in streamflow. Limnology and Oceanography 2000;45(8):1764-1772. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) |
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Jiang SC, Louis V, Choopun N, Sharma A, Huq A, Colwell RR. Genetic diversity of Vibrio cholerae in Chesapeake Bay determined by amplified fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 2000;66(1):140-147. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Jiang SC, Matte M, Matte G, Huq A, Colwell RR. Genetic diversity of clinical and environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae determined by amplified fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 2000;66(1):148-153. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Kocagil P, Demarteau N, Fisher A, Shortle JS. The value of preventing Crytosporidium contamination. Risk–Health, Safety & Environment 1998;9(2):175-196. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Lobitz B, Beck L, Huq A, Wood B, Fuchs G, Faruque ASG, Colwell R. Climate and infectious disease: use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2000;97(4):1438-1443. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Najjar RG. The water balance of the Susquehanna River Basin and its response to climate change. Journal of Hydrology 1999;219(1-2):7-19. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Patz JA, Martens WJM, Focks DA, Jetten TH. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives 1998;106(3):147-153. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) |
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Seas C, Miranda J, Gil AI, Leon-Barua R, Patz J, Huq A, Colwell RR, Sack RB. New insights on the emergence of cholera in Latin America during 1991: the Peruvian experience. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2000;62(4):513-517. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) R824995 (Final) |
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Szilagyi J, Parlange MB. A geomorphology-based semi-distributed watershed model. Advances in Water Resources 1999;23(2):177-187. |
R824995 (1999) R824995 (2000) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
watershed, Chesapeake Bay, Mid-Atlantic Region, modeling, Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, dengue, cholera, Lyme disease, water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases, global climate change, human health, microbiology, cryptosporidiosis, Cryptosporidium, Pennsylvania, PA, Texas, TX, Puerto Rico, Peru, Mexico., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Water, Hydrology, Health Risk Assessment, climate change, Atmospheric Sciences, Ecological Risk Assessment, Drinking Water, remote sensing, integrated assessments, Cholera, public health endpoints, microbial risk assessment, environmental monitoring, policy making, water-borne disease, hydrologic models, habitat diversity, climate variability, climatic models, public health effectsRelevant Websites:
http://www.jhu.edu/~climate
http://www.jhsph.edu/globalchange
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.