Grantee Research Project Results
1999 Progress Report: Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Great Lakes Ecosystems
EPA Grant Number: R825150Title: Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Great Lakes Ecosystems
Investigators: Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Locci, Ana B. , Koonce, Joseph F.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University , Case Western Reserve University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1996 through September 30, 1999
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1998 through September 30, 1999
Project Amount: $620,259
RFA: Ecological Assessment (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The 1994 State of the (Great) Lakes Ecosystem Conference recommended that an ecosystem approach be adopted for studying Great Lakes ecosystem problems and the stresses that cause them; that well-defined ecosystem objectives be defined to measure success in restoring ecosystem integrity; and that roundtable and interdisciplinary approaches to decisionmaking be taken that aim for consensus among stakeholders. The purpose of this project is to develop modeling and decision methods that could be used to respond to those recommendations.
In particular, the goal of the project is to develop and test an integrated ecological assessment and decision methodology for the Lake Erie Ecosystem. The methodology is to be designed to assist managers and stakeholders involved in the Lake Erie Lakewide Management Plan (LaMP) and other Lake Erie management processes to define objectives and evaluate tradeoffs and risks associated with future uses. The research plan builds on existing initiatives and addresses fishery and water quality management concerns: (1) interaction of invasions of exotic species, nutrient reductions, and fishery harvests; (2) influence of nearshore and tributary habitat on offshore community structure and productivity; (3) effects of alteration of offshore community on contaminant body burdens of fish; and (4) sensitivity of emerging ecosystem objectives to climate change.
The products of the research will be: (1) an expanded Lake Erie Ecosystem Model (LEEM; modifications are to include habitat, hydrology, and climate change components); (2) applications of LEEM to ecologic scientific and management questions; (3) development and application of methodologies for decisionmaking under multiple objectives and risks; and (4) workshops in which Lake Erie managers and other participants in the Lake Erie LaMP apply and evaluate LEEM and the multiobjective risk decision methods.
Progress Summary:
First, LEEM has been enhanced as follows. Modeling methods and data have been developed for representing the effect of habitat availability (tributary, nearshore, and offshore) upon recruitment, with explicit accounting for lake-level and tributary flow effects. This work has been undertaken in collaboration with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and U.S. and Canadian fishery researchers. Better understanding of model resolution (including time and spatial scale and fish population age structure) has been obtained by exploring how alternative model formulations affect model behavior and error propagation. The results are supportive of the coarse time and spatial scales now in LEEM, and its incorporation of age structure. The final enhancement has been inclusion of error propagation capabilities.
LEEM has been used to address the following scientific and management questions: (1) the desirability of multispecies fishery quota management compared to single species management, and their interactions with ecosystem (productivity) constraints; (2) tradeoffs that would result from changes in phosphorus management; and (3) the relative roles of zebra mussels, decreasing phosphorus loadings, and predator-prey interactions in the recent declines in yellow perch and walleye populations.
Alternative methods for analyzing tradeoffs among competing objectives and uncertainty have been demonstrated by an application to phosphorus management. Project investigators have collaborated with the Ecosystem Objectives Subcommittee of the Lake Erie LaMP in the design and implementation of a stakeholder consultation process in which these methods are used to communicate tradeoffs in lake management and elicit judgments concerning their desirability.
Future Activities:
Application of LEEM to address tradeoffs and uncertainties involved in habitat management and fisheries management; decision tree analyses of the value of research on lower trophic level and nutrient uncertainties; and workshops involving stakeholders and Lake Erie managers who will evaluate LEEM and the developed multiobjective risk methods.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 65 publications | 13 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Chao PT, Hobbs BF, Venkatesh BN. How climate uncertainty should be included in Great Lakes management: Modeling workshop results. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1999;35(6):1485-1497. |
R825150 (1998) R825150 (1999) R825150 (Final) |
Exit |
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Linville CD, Hobbs BF, Venkatesh BN. Estimation of error and bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo decision analysis using the bootstrap. Risk Analysis 2001;21(1):63-74. |
R825150 (1998) R825150 (1999) R825150 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
multicriteria decisionmaking, ecosystem health, fisheries management, Great Lakes Water Quality agreement., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, exploratory research environmental biology, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological Risk Assessment, Great Lakes, risk assessment, interactive stressors, limnology, multiobjective risk decision tool, lake erie, assessment models, biodiversity, climate change impact, ecosystem assessment, wildlife, hydrological, modeling, ecological assessment, aquatic ecosystems, decision tool, water quality, fish , stakeholders, climate variabilityRelevant Websites:
http://129.22.156.18/leem.htm
http://129.22.156.152/ABIA/
http://www.ijc.org/boards/letf/letfreports.html
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.