Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Spatial Demographic Models for the Study of Stress Effects on Wildlife Populations
EPA Grant Number: R829089Title: Spatial Demographic Models for the Study of Stress Effects on Wildlife Populations
Investigators: Caswell, Hal , Neubert, Michael
Institution: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: December 17, 2001 through December 16, 2005 (Extended to June 16, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: December 17, 2002 through December 16, 2003
Project Amount: $500,000
RFA: Wildlife Risk Assessment (2001) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration , Biology/Life Sciences , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to develop approaches to assessing risks to wildlife populations, particularly risks characterized by a multiplicity of stressors and by spatial distribution. Our research weaves together two threads already spun into the fabric of demographic analysis: models for spatially distributed populations and analyses of the effects of stressors. The methods we propose will be capable of assimilating a variety of kinds of demographic and dispersal data. They also will permit quantification of the uncertainty in the conclusions that derives from incomplete or uncertain data.
Progress Summary:
We are developing and analyzing models for two kinds of landscapes—patchy populations and populations distributed across a continuous landscape. During the last year, we have made progress on both of these goals, including the following accomplishments:
- We developed and applied a life table response experiment analysis for the invasion wave speed. This method permits comparative analysis of demographic and dispersal data and can be applied to the analysis of invasive species or the reintroduction of endangered species. We have published a paper on the results.
- We have developed sensitivity analyses for stochastic models and used them to examine the effects of multiple stressors.
- We have developed analyses for the sensitivity of equilibrium density in nonlinear matrix population models and applied them to density-dependent models from the literature. The results have been published.
- We have applied our theoretical results to a variety of kinds of data on a variety of kinds of species, including whales, long-lived seabirds, threatened floodplain plants, and owls.
Future Activities:
In the next year, we will:(1) use our theory of multiregional matrix models for patchy populations to explore spatial stochastic effects; (2) complete our analyses of periodic and stochastic fluctuations in integrodifference equation models; and (3) apply our models to study stress effects in marine mammals, birds, and plants.
Journal Articles on this Report : 13 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 80 publications | 23 publications in selected types | All 20 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Caswell H, Lensink R, Neubert MG. Demography and dispersal: life table response experiments for invasion speed. Ecology 2003;84(8):1968-1978. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Caswell H, Takada T. Elasticity analysis of density-dependent matrix population models:the invasion exponent and its substitutes. Theoretical Population Biology 2004;65(4):401-411. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Caswell H, Takada T, Hunter CM. Sensitivity analysis of equilibrium in density-dependent matrix population models. Ecology Letters 2004;7(5):380-387. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Caswell H. Sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate:three extensions. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics 2005;47(1):75-85. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Harding KC, Harkonen T, Caswell H. The 2002 European seal plague:epidemiology and population consequences. Ecology Letters 2002;5(6):727-732. |
R829089 (2002) R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Hunter CM, Caswell H. Selective harvest of sooty shearwater chicks: effects on population dynamics and sustainability. Journal of Animal Ecology 2005;74(4):589-600. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit Exit Exit |
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Hunter CM, Caswell H. The use of the vec-permutation matrix in spatial matrix population models. Ecological Modelling 2005;188(1):15-21. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Lesnoff M, Ezanno P, Caswell H. Sensitivity analysis in periodic matrix models: a postscript to Caswell and Trevisan. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 2003;37(9-10):945-948. |
R829089 (2002) R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Marvier M, Kareiva P, Neubert MG. Habitat destruction, fragmentation, and disturbance promote invasion by habitat generalists in a multispecies metapopulation. Risk Analysis 2004;24(4):869-878. |
R829089 (2002) R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Neubert MG, Klepac P, van den Driessche P. Stabilizing dispersal delays in predator-prey metapopulation models. Theoretical Population Biology 2002;61(3):339-347. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit |
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Neubert MG. Marine reserves and optimal harvesting. Ecology Letters 2003;6(9):843-849. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Neubert MG, Parker IM. Projecting rates of spread for invasive species. Risk Analysis 2004;24(4):817-831. |
R829089 (2002) R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
not available |
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Smith M, Caswell H, Mettler-Cherry P. Stochastic flood and precipitation regimes and the population dynamics of a threatened floodplain plant. Ecological Applications 2005;15(3):1036-1052. |
R829089 (2003) R829089 (2005) R829089 (Final) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
exploratory research, environmental biology, wildlife, wildlife risk assessment, contaminants, demographic, demographic data, ecological exposure, life table response experiment, multiple stressors, population, predicting risk, risk assessment, sensitive population, spatial demographic model, spatial distribution, stress effects on wildlife populations, stressors,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, exploratory research environmental biology, wildlife, Mathematics, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Statistics, Ecological Risk Assessment, ecological exposure, predicting risk, spatial distribution, risk assessment, demographic, stressors, contaminants, demographic data, stress effects on wildlife populations, wildlife populations, multiple stressors, Wildlife Risk Assessment, spatial demographic model, sensitive populationProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.