Grantee Research Project Results
2017 Progress Report: Estimation of Spatially Explicit Water Quality Benefits throughout River Systems: Development of Next Generation Stated Preference Methods Using National Probability Samples and Online Labor Pools
EPA Grant Number: R836167Title: Estimation of Spatially Explicit Water Quality Benefits throughout River Systems: Development of Next Generation Stated Preference Methods Using National Probability Samples and Online Labor Pools
Investigators: Johnston, Robert J , Moeltner, Klaus , Wollheim, Wil
Current Investigators: Johnston, Robert J , Wollheim, Wil , Moeltner, Klaus
Institution: Clark University , Virginia Tech , University of New Hampshire
Current Institution: Clark University , University of New Hampshire , Virginia Tech
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2022)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2017 through March 31,2018
Project Amount: $799,919
RFA: Water Quality Benefits (2015) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water
Objective:
This project will develop novel, modular approaches to stated preference valuation designed to address the challenges of use/nonuse value estimation for complex, temporally/spatially explicit aquatic ecosystem change with heterogeneous benefits for different user and nonuser groups. The approach, denoted Free-form Choice Experiments (FCEs), will restructure the way that willingness to pay (WTP) is elicited and estimated in survey-based valuation, hybridizing methods from contingent valuation, choice experiments, revealed preference modeling, online labor pool sampling, and Bayesian econometrics. The approach will be developed to estimate WTP for water quality and ecosystem service improvements throughout river networks. FCEs are designed to be transformative across multiple dimensions, including: (a) novel ways to elicit stated preferences and design surveys, with scenarios coupled directly to ecological models; (b) flexible value elicitation and modeling that generates benefit functions linked to temporally/spatially explicit effects; (c) an ability to evaluate the relevance of many ecological indicators to different user/nonuser groups; (d) novel modeling of data using Bayesian econometrics; and (e) new approaches to stated preference sampling using online labor pools. Biogeochemical forecasts for valuation scenarios will be projected using FrAMES (Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System), a process-based spatially explicit water quality model. These methods will provide a means to estimate economic values for a variety of surface waters and types of quality change.
Progress Summary:
Work during Year 2 emphasized the completion of Tasks II and III in the proposal, leading to complete templates for the Free-form Choice Experiment (FCE) questionnaires.
FrAMES was applied to the Northeast U.S. region to simulate specific conductivity, fecal coliform, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen, which were used to characterize three water quality indicators relevant to the public. An aquatic life indicator was developed based on a reported range of chloride concentrations that affect the survival rate of aquatic organisms. A water safety indicator for drinking and recreation was developed based on fecal coliform count guidelines. An indicator for overall water quality was developed as a combined metric using all three modeled solute concentrations, compared to reference conditions for the case study area. The concentration of each modeled solute in every river segment was binned based on the percentiles of the solute concentrations identified for the contemporary scenario. The water quality indicator is an average of the three different solute percentiles, with values between 0 and 1. Water quality indicators were quantified using FrAMES solute predictions across 3 scenarios: (1) contemporary conditions with current environmental management practices and climate, (2) a future climate scenario, with no updates to current management, and (3) a future climate scenario with a proposed program for environmental management. The proposed programs for environmental management target (A) reducing inorganic nitrogen loads to aquatic systems by upgrading Wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) technologies at selected locations and implementing riparian buffers along hydrologically connected agriculture and developed areas, (B) minimizing fecal coliform pollution by increasing urban rain infiltration, and (C) reducing river chloride concentrations via decreasing road salt application. For each scenario, the three water indicators were simulated for every river segment the Northeast US at a gridded spatial resolution of 45 seconds latitude by 45 seconds longitude, at a daily time step. Downscaled climate data derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 Model (scenario A1FI, 970 ppm CO2 by 2100) were used to force the model. Contemporary land cover data was acquired from the National Land Cover Database. WWTP locations and types were assembled from the EPA Clean Watersheds Needs Survey.
Based on the resulting scenarios, paper questionnaires were developed for initial focus group testing. Questionnaires included the value elicitation binary choice question, along with (a) survey instructions, (b) supporting informational materials, (c) ancillary questions, including warm-up, debriefing and validation questions, and (d) elements to enhance incentive compatibility. Valuation scenarios were constructed around three indicators described above. Spatially explicit levels for these indicators were mapped across the New England case study area. Scenarios compare outcomes for these indicators with and without proposed management alternatives (see above). These outcomes, paired with the hypothetical household cost of each alternative, comprise each valuation question. Each respondent considers a single, hypothetically binding, binary referendum question designed to meet conditions for incentive compatibility. All scenarios are illustrated for a case study area of approximately 95,800 miles of rivers and streams in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, over 71,992 square miles of land.
Initial focus group testing and revision of the paper questionnaire was conducted from June – September 2017, with three focus groups held in Rhode Island. Human subjects research approvals were obtained from the Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) of Clark University and Virginia Tech, and from the EPA Human Subjects Research Review Official (HSRRO). Based on this pretesting, the questionnaire was modified into an online version, using a Qualtrics platform for subsequent focus group testing. Work during the second project year also began development of the econometric framework, including Bayesian Model Search and Averaging modeling to allow model uncertainty to be reflected in parameter and welfare estimates.
Future Activities:
Tasks to be completed include final development and pretesting/revision questionnaires, leading to a instrument for implementation on Amazon MTurk. We will also implement the survey using a standard mail/online format for comparison. Questionnaire elements will be pretested and revised as part of upcoming focus groups. Among the issues to be considered will be the development of scenarios and payment mechanisms viewed as clear, relevant, consequential and binding by respondents. Focus will be given to the communication and understanding of water quality indicators, along with perceptions of the choice question and implications for incentive compatibility. We will address the ways in which respondents interact with the web-based questionnaire on different devices, such as laptops and tablets. We will also consider aspects such as the sensitivity of responses to household cost, as a precursor to bid design. We plan to conduct 4-6 additional focus groups during year three, leading to a final template for the survey. Input from focus groups will also inform the final set of policy scenarios that will form the basis of valuation scenarios. We will statistically evaluate and finalize scenario design properties to ensure preference model viability with anticipated samples, and will adapt the questionnaire as necessary for MTurk implementation. Grounded in the outcomes of these tasks, we will finalize survey and sampling methods, mount the survey on MTurk, and complete pilot tests.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 6 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Media: water, watersheds; Ecosystem Protection: ecosystem, indicators, aquatic, habitat; Public Policy: decision making, cost-benefit, non-market valuation, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, public good, Bayesian, willingness-to-pay; Disciplines: social science, economics, ecology, hydrology; Methods/Techniques: modeling, analytical, surveys; Geographic Areas: Northeast, EPA Region 1; Other: ecosystem service, choice modeling, choice experiment, nonuse value, welfare analysis, water qualityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2020 Progress Report
- 2019 Progress Report
- 2018 Progress Report
- 2016 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
1 journal articles for this project