Grantee Research Project Results
2016 Progress Report: Estimation of Spatially Explicit Water Quality Benefits throughout River Systems: Development of Next Generation Stated Preference Methods Using National Probability Samples and Online Labor Pools
EPA Grant Number: R836167Title: Estimation of Spatially Explicit Water Quality Benefits throughout River Systems: Development of Next Generation Stated Preference Methods Using National Probability Samples and Online Labor Pools
Investigators: Johnston, Robert J , Moeltner, Klaus , Wollheim, Wil
Current Investigators: Johnston, Robert J , Wollheim, Wil , Moeltner, Klaus
Institution: Clark University , Virginia Tech , University of New Hampshire
Current Institution: Clark University , University of New Hampshire , Virginia Tech
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: April 1, 2016 through March 31, 2019 (Extended to March 31, 2022)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2016 through March 31,2017
Project Amount: $799,919
RFA: Water Quality Benefits (2015) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water
Objective:
This project will develop novel, modular approaches to stated preference valuation designed to address the challenges of use/nonuse value estimation for complex, temporally/spatially explicit aquatic ecosystem change with heterogeneous benefits for different user and nonuser groups. The approach, denoted Free-form Choice Experiments (FCEs), will restructure the way that willingness to pay (WTP) is elicited and estimated in survey-based valuation, hybridizing methods from contingent valuation, choice experiments, revealed preference modeling, online labor pool sampling, and Bayesian econometrics. The approach will be developed to estimate WTP for water quality and ecosystem service improvements throughout river networks. FCEs are designed to be transformative across multiple dimensions, including: (a) novel ways to elicit stated preferences and design surveys, with scenarios coupled directly to ecological models, (b) flexible value elicitation and modeling that generates benefit functions linked to temporally/spatially explicit effects, (c) an ability to evaluate the relevance of many ecological indicators to different user/nonuser groups, (d) novel modeling of data using Bayesian econometrics, and (e) new approaches to stated preference sampling using online labor pools. Biogeochemical forecasts for valuation scenarios will be projected using FrAMES (Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System), a process-based spatially explicit water quality model. These methods will provide a means to estimate economic values for a variety of surface waters and types of quality change.
Progress Summary:
Work during year one emphasized development of the conceptual and biophysical modeling foundations for the proposed methods. An initial step was identification of a preliminary set of welfare-relevant water quality and ecosystem service outcomes for subsequent evaluation, focusing on changes related to our target pollutants in the Northeast US case study region. Grounded in outcomes, we developed initial templates for the proposed Free-form Choice Experiments (FCEs), including scenarios, indicators and visuals representing relevant aspects of water quality change.
Initial runs of the Framework for Aquatic Modeling in the Earth System (FrAMES) were applied to develop initial water quality scenarios for inclusion within FCE questionnaires. Scenarios were developed to quantify the impact of various management strategies on water quality given changes in land cover and climate. Each scenario was simulated for the period of 2000-2050 using static land cover and management associated with each scenario. The Merrimack River basin was used as a test case to evaluate the impacts that (1) changing climate, (2) changing land cover, and (3) adaptive management strategies have on underlying water quality characteristics (dissolved inorganic nitrogen, specific conductivity, fecal coliform, and water temperature). These characteristics are being used to derive general indicators of river condition that are both understood by survey respondents and represent directly valued water quality outcomes. Model results forecast reductions in chloride, fecal coliform, and DIN under various management strategies, compared to a business-as-usual status quo. These changes will provide the biophysical foundation for the policy scenarios that will be subsequently paired with a “bid level” (or annual household cost) and presented to respondents as binary choice questions.
Prior to use within valuation scenarios, raw FrAMES outputs must be translated into indicators meaningful and relevant to respondents. Additional work during year one hence linked these outputs to indicators of potentially valued water quality outcomes. Initial work focused on the illustration of underlying changes in total inorganic nitrogen, conductivity, fecal coliform, and dissolved oxygen. This is because some respondents may value pollutant reductions directly, in addition to the effects of these changes. We explored alternative ways of displaying these results, e.g., using maps of concentrations for these constituents, difference maps showing the reductions in these constituents due to policy scenarios, and time series plots. Subsequent work developed indicators that further translate these underlying effects into changes that are directly relevant to the public. Work during year one also compiled water quality criteria and guidelines for fecal coliform, conductivity, and nitrogen, for comparison with modeling outputs and changes in concentrations from FrAMES. These guidelines are typically in the form of general water quality classifications (e.g., Class A, B C) and as such are generally qualitative descriptors. We will compare water quality projections from FrAMES outputs to these classifications to evaluate how policy scenarios influence the general distribution of water quality in New England. These classes can subsequently be linked to a variety of outcomes of direct relevance to the public, for example suitability for particular types of human use and thresholds for aquatic species.
These models and analyses will provide the foundation for valuation scenarios to be incorporated within FCE valuation scenarios. One of the advantages of the proposed methods are that valuation scenarios are grounded in information-rich, spatially/temporally explicit valuation (policy) scenarios generated directly via biogeochemical model forecasts. The final task completed during the year one was the development of initial drafts of FCE questionnaires based on these model outputs and indicators. Survey elements developed during year one included value elicitation questions, along with (a) survey instructions, (b) supporting informational materials and graphics, (c) ancillary questions, including warm-up and debriefing questions, and (d) survey elements to enhance incentive compatibility. Required human subjects research approvals were obtained from the Institutional Review Boards (IRBs) of Clark University and Virginia Tech, and from the EPA Human Subjects Research Review Official (HSRRO). Approval from Clark University’s IRB was obtained on October 12, 2016 (IRB Protocol #2016-004). Approval from the Virginia Tech IRB was obtained on October 25, 2016 (IRB #16-954). Final approval from the EPA HSRRO was obtained on November 4, 2016 (HSR-000724).
Future Activities:
Work during year two will focus on the completion of Tasks II and III. Task II will develop the water quality scenarios that will form the core of willingness to pay (WTP) elicitation and the proposed stated preference questionnaires. Initial development of these scenarios was detailed above. Work to develop alternative indicators related to human use suitability, aquatic life support and aesthetics will continue. Each scenario will project variation in the valued aspects of water quality and aquatic ecosystem services identified during Task I. These scenarios and associated valuation scenarios will be iteratively pretested and revised, along with other aspects of draft questionnaires, as part of focus groups. Initial focus groups have been scheduled for July/August 2017, along with associated locations, screeners and recruitment materials. Initial focus groups will be held in southern New England, with subsequent groups in other locations. Among the issues to be considered in focus groups will be the development of scenarios and payment mechanisms viewed as clear, relevant, consequential and binding by respondents. Focus will also be given to the understanding and use of different types of information, including the development of indicators that quantify aspects of water quality change of greatest relevance to respondents. We plan to conduct at least 6-8 focus groups during year two, leading to a near-final template for the FCE questionnaire.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 6 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
Media: water, watersheds; Ecosystem Protection: ecosystem, indicators, aquatic, habitat; Public Policy: decision making, cost-benefit, non-market valuation, contingent valuation, survey, preferences, public good, Bayesian, willingness-to-pay; Disciplines: social science, economics, ecology, hydrology; Methods/Techniques: modeling, analytical, surveys; Geographic Areas: Northeast, EPA Region 1; Other: ecosystem service, choice modeling, choice experiment, nonuse value, welfare analysis, water qualityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- Final Report
- 2020 Progress Report
- 2019 Progress Report
- 2018 Progress Report
- 2017 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
1 journal articles for this project