Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Planning for an Unknown Future: Incorporating Meteorological Uncertainty into Predictions of the Impact of Fires and Dust on US Particulate Matter
EPA Grant Number: R835884Title: Planning for an Unknown Future: Incorporating Meteorological Uncertainty into Predictions of the Impact of Fires and Dust on US Particulate Matter
Investigators: Fischer, Emily , Pierce, Jeffrey , Barnes, Elizabeth
Institution: Colorado State University
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 (Extended to December 31, 2020)
Project Amount: $349,969
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change , Early Career Awards
Objective:
The objective of this research is to determine how model uncertainty in future meteorology translates into uncertainty in the contributions of smoke and dust to future particulate matter (PM) episodes.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
This work greatly improves our understanding of how changes to the frequency or intensity of U.S. wildfires and dust events will likely impact air quality. We leveraged a daily operational smoke product to demonstrate where changes to the frequency or intensity of fires in the Western U.S. could impact other regions. We then compared the environmental conditions, meteorological drivers, and air quality impacts of human‐ and lightning‐ignited wildfires to show that for the majority of land cover types within the U.S. West and Southeast, annual lightning‐ and human‐ignited wildfire burn area respond similarly to temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. These results suggest that annual wildfire burn area for human‐ and lightning‐ignited wildfires may respond similarly to climate change. We objectively selected combinations of environmental conditions that best explain historical variability in western U.S. wildfire burn area. Climate model output was used to estimate how future wildfire burn area might change based on objectively selected variables. We show that increases in burn area are likely as many climate models suggest the future will be drier. However, future wildfire burn area estimates are lower wherever the importance of aridity is reduced. Using similar methods, we show that estimates of future fine dust concentrations in the Southwest are sensitive to the choice of environmental variables used to make the estimate and that the differences in estimates based on different environmental conditions can be larger than the differences observed between a climate scenario where carbon emissions slow and one where they continue to increase throughout the 21st century. We estimate that future Southwest dust season fine-mode dust concentrations will increase by 12% by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. This increase is driven by anticipated decreases in relative humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture and buffered by decreased wind speeds.
Journal Articles on this Report : 9 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 18 publications | 9 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Abdo M, Ward I, O'Dell K, Ford B, Pierce J, Fischer E, Rooks J. Impact of Wildfire Smoke on Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Colorado, 2007-2015. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBIC HEALTH 2019;16(19):3720. |
R835884 (Final) |
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Brey SJ, Ruminski M, Atwood SA, Fischer EV. Connecting smoke plumes to sources using Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke and fire location data over North America. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2018;18(3):1745-1761. |
R835884 (2017) R835884 (2018) R835884 (Final) |
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Sorensen C, House JA, O’Dell K, Brey SJ, Ford B, Pierce JR, Fischer EV, Lemery J, Crooks JL. Associations between wildfire-related PM2.5 and intensive care unit admissions in the United States, 2006–2015. GeoHealth 2021;5:e2021GH000385. doi:10.1029/2021GH000385. |
R835884 (Final) |
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Brey SJ, Barnes EA, Pierce JR, Wiedinmyer C, Fischer EV. Environmental conditions, ignition type, and air quality impacts of wildfires in the southeastern and western US. Earth's Future 2018;6(10):1442-1456. |
R835884 (2018) R835884 (Final) |
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Pratt JR, Gan RW, Ford B, Brey S, Pierce JR, Fischer EV, Magzamen S. A national burden assessment of estimated pediatric asthma emergency department visits that may be attributed to elevated ozone levels associated with the presence of smoke. Environmental Monitoring and assessment 2019;191(2):269. |
R835884 (2019) R835884 (Final) |
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Lipner EM, O'Dell K, Brey SJ, Ford B, Pierce JR, Fischer EV, Crooks JL. The associations between clinical respiratory outcomes and ambient wildfire smoke exposure among pediatric asthma patients at National Jewish Health. GeoHealth 2019;3(6):146-59. |
R835884 (2019) R835884 (Final) |
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Brey SJ, Pierce JR, Barnes EA, Fischer EV. Estimating the spread in future fine dust concentrations in the Southwest United States. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres 2020;125:e2019JD031735. doi:10.1029/2019JD031735. |
R835884 (Final) |
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David LM, Ravishankara AR, Brey SJ, Fischer EV, Volckens J, Kreidenweis S. Could the exception become the rule? ‘Uncontrollable’ air pollution events in the US due to wildland fires. Environmental Research Letters 2021;16:034029. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe1f3. |
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Brey SJ, Barnes EA, Pierce JR, Swann ALS, Fischer EV. Past variance and future projections of the environmental conditions driving western US summertime wildfire burn area. Earth’s Future 2020:e2020EF001645. doi:10.1029/2020EF001645. |
R835884 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
particulate matter, fires, dust, climate, synoptic meteorologyProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2019 Progress Report
- 2018 Progress Report
- 2017 Progress Report
- 2016 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
9 journal articles for this project