Grantee Research Project Results
Final Report: Effects of Changes in Climate and Land Use on U.S. Dust and Wildfire Particulate Matter
EPA Grant Number: R835875Title: Effects of Changes in Climate and Land Use on U.S. Dust and Wildfire Particulate Matter
Investigators: Mickley, Loretta J. , Jacob, Daniel J. , Kaplan, Jed
Institution: Harvard University , ARVE Research Sarl
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 (Extended to December 31, 2020)
Project Amount: $719,780
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change
Objective:
Project goals are as follows: (1) to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on dust mobilization and transport within the western United States; (2) to quantify the impact of climate change on Asian dust influence over the western United States; and (3) to provide fine-scale projections of wildfire smoke for the future climate in the West.
Summary/Accomplishments (Outputs/Outcomes):
Overview.
Our research examined the drivers of dust and smoke particles in the present-day and investigated how these constituents in air pollution may change in a changing world. In this way, we have helped quantify the climate penalty on U.S. air quality.
Project details.
1. What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Investigating the 2002-2015 Increase in Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest (Achakulwisut et al., 2017)
We investigated the spatial patterns of observed fine dust interannual variability in the western United States and their meteorological controlling factors during 2002-2015 March-May. We then developed a prediction model to explore the causes of observed increases in fine dust concentrations during March in the Southwest. We found that March fine dust concentrations have increased from 2002 to 2015 in southwestern regions by about 0.06 µg m-3 a-1 . Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that these increases are associated with: (1) regionally drier and warmer conditions driven by constructive interference between ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; (2) soil moisture reductions in areas spanning the North American deserts; and (3) enhanced trans-Pacific transport. Our results provided an observational basis for improving dust emission schemes and for assessing future dust activity under climate change.
2. Drought-Sensitivity of Fine Dust in the U.S. Southwest: Implications for Air Quality and Public Health Under Future Climate Change (Achakulwisut et al., 2018)
We investigated the association between the interannual variability of surface fine dust in the southwestern United States and regional drought conditions from 2000 to 2015. The observed present-day relationships were then used to project future (2076-2095) drought-driven changes in fine dust concentrations, using bias-corrected downscaled meteorological outputs from 23 CMIP5 models following two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We then projected future increases in seasonal mean fine dust of 0.15-0.33 µg m-3 (17-33%) under RCP2.6 and 0.62-1.96 µg m-3 (99-189%) under RCP8.5. Our results highlighted the need to better constrain potential climate change penalties due to dust emissions from arid regions, as well as the specific health impacts of fine dust exposure.
3. Who among the elderly is most vulnerable to exposure and health risks of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke? (Liu et al., 2017)
Wildfires burn over 7 million US acres annually, according to the U.S. Forest Service. Little is known regarding which subpopulations are more vulnerable to health impacts from wildfire smoke, including fine particles (PM2.5). We estimated exposure to PM2.5 specifically from wildfires and associations between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and respiratory hospital admissions for subpopulations >65y in the western United States (2004-2009). Our findings suggested that increased risk of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke is higher for females than males (10.4% versus 3.7%), blacks than whites (21.7% versus 6.9%), and lower-education counties than higher-educated counties (15.9% versus 3.1%) although effect estimates are not statistically different across subpopulations. Our study raises important environmental justice issues that can inform public health programs and wildfire management.
4. Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change (Achakulwisut et al., 2019)
The US Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantified the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the EPA’s Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework. We estimated potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying observed dust-meteorology sensitivities to downscaled output from six climate models following intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. We found that in the worst case scenario, fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 220% and 350%, respectively. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other US sectors using the CIRA framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.
5. Trends and Spatial Shifts in Lightning Fires and Smoke Concentrations in Response to 21st Century Climate Over the National Forests and Parks of the Western United States (Li et al., 2020)
Recent studies have suggested that ongoing climate change will lead to warmer and drier conditions in the western United States with a consequent increase in the number and size of wildfires, yet large uncertainty exists in these projections. Here we assessed the influence of future changes in climate and land cover on lightning-caused wildfires in the national forests and parks of the western United States and the consequences of these fires on air quality. To that end, we linked a dynamic vegetation model that includes a process-based representation of fire (LPJLMfire) to a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Under a scenario of moderate future climate change (RCP4.5), increasing lightning-caused wildfire enhances the burden of smoke PM2.5 by as much as ~50% by the late-21st century during the fire season in the national forests and parks of the western United States. In a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), smoke PM concentrations doubles in these areas by 2100, underscoring the climate penalty on air quality due to increasing wildfires.
6. Response of Dust Emissions in Southwestern North America to 21st Century Trends in Climate, CO2 Fertilization, and Land Use: Implications for Air Quality (Li et al., 2021)
The consequences of climate change for dust mobilization and concentrations are unknown, but could have large implications for human health, given connections between dust inhalation and disease. Here we drive a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) with future scenarios of climate and land use, and link the results to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of land cover on dust mobilization and fine dust concentrations (defined as dust particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter) on surface air quality in southwestern North America. We found that vegetation cover could decline significantly across most of the domain by 2100, leading to widespread increases in fine dust concentrations, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ~2.0 µg m-3 relative to the present day) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ~2.5 µg m-3). Our findings have implications for human health, especially for the health of the indigenous people who make up a large percentage of the population in this region
Journal Articles on this Report : 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 12 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 10 journal articles |
---|
Type | Citation | ||
---|---|---|---|
|
Achakulwisut P, Mickley L, Anenberg S. Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the Southwest:Implications for air quality and public healthfuture climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2018;13(5):054025. |
R835875 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
Achakulwisut P, Anenberg S, Neumann J, Pen S, Weiss N, Rimmins A, Fann N, Nartinich J, Mickley L. Effects of InReasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the Southwest Climate Change. GEOHEALTH 2019;3(5):127-144. |
R835875 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
Li Y, Mickley LJ, Liu P, Kaplan JO. Trends and spatial shifts in lightning fires and smoke concentrations in response to 21st century climate over the national forests and parks of the western United States. ,em> Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2020;20(14):8827-38. |
R835875 (Final) R835872 (2020) |
Exit Exit |
|
Liu T, Mickley LJ, Marlier ME, DeFries RS, Khan MF, Latif MT and Karambelas A. Diagnosing spatial biases and uncertainties in global fire emissions inventories:Indonesia as regional case study. Remote Sensing of Environment 2020; 237. |
R835875 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
|
Li Y, Mickley LJ, Kaplan JO. Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO 2 fertilization, and land use:implications for air quality. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2021 ;21(1):57-68. |
R835875 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
Supplemental Keywords:
intercontinental transport, climate change, climate penaltyRelevant Websites:
Loretta Mickley: Research Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.
Project Research Results
- 2019 Progress Report
- 2018 Progress Report
- 2017 Progress Report
- 2016 Progress Report
- Original Abstract
10 journal articles for this project