Grantee Research Project Results
2001 Progress Report: Regional Vulnerability of Forest Resources to Current and Projected Environmental Stresses in the Southeastern U.S.
EPA Grant Number: R828785Title: Regional Vulnerability of Forest Resources to Current and Projected Environmental Stresses in the Southeastern U.S.
Investigators: Abt, Robert , Murray, Brian , Sun, Ge , Shugart, Herman , Ahn, SoEun , McNulty, Steve , Pattanayak, Subhrendu
Current Investigators: Abt, Robert , Myers, Jennifer Moore , Sommer, Allan , Murray, Brian , Bunch, Corey , Yang, Jui-Chen , Beach, Robert , Ahn, SoEun , McNulty, Steve , Pattanayak, Subhrendu
Institution: North Carolina State University , Desert Research Institute , University of Virginia
Current Institution: North Carolina State University , Desert Research Institute , USDA
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: March 19, 2001 through March 18, 2003 (Extended to March 18, 2004)
Project Period Covered by this Report: March 19, 2001 through March 18, 2002
Project Amount: $399,365
RFA: Futures Research in Socio-Economics (2001) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Objective:
The objectives of this research project are to: (1) determine the effects of ozone, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, and climate change, singly and in combination, on forest resources in the Southeastern United States; (2) develop an integrated modeling framework which links climate, biological, and economic process models; (3) complete an integrated ecological risk assessment of the biological and economic effects of chemical and physical environmental stressors and land-use change on the forest resources in the 13 Southeastern states; and (4) develop a regional vulnerability assessment report focused on identifying and prioritizing the role of environmental stresses, climate change, and forest market responses in impacting forest systems and the goods and services they provide to the American public.
The major objectives of the PnET II/GAP Model Section phase of the research project were to develop regional and subregional forest sector responses to changes in the physical and chemical environment and land-use change using a linked forest productivity model (PnET-II) and a gap simulation model. The linkage between PnET-II and an individual-based gap model resulted in refined estimates of forest net primary productivity (NPP) with gap model outputs of forest canopy profile and community structure.
Progress Summary:
This research project builds on the integrated economic-ecologic modeling system used for the Southeastern component of the national climate change assessment. There are three phases to this research. The first phase is to refine and reparameterize the economic and ecologic model components. The second phase is to link the model components, and the third phase is to conduct a vulnerability assessment of the southern forest resource based on the integrated modeling structure. In the first phase, the ecological and economic model refinements are progressing as coordinated, but are separate research projects.
The linkage between the PnET-II and gap models was accomplished by coupling the two with a separate, central inventory module. This approach allowed for minimal modification of either model's core function set. Maximum flexibility in input parameter datasets and outputs also was achieved with this methodology. Currently, investigators are expanding the breadth of tree species and forest types, which are parameterized for the modeling systems to increase opportunities for regional-scale application.
For the economic components, the first phase focused on refining the timber supply framework to reflect the endogenous nature of inventory age structure in the harvest decision. This empirical work showed that age class structure had significant effects on harvest behavior, and these effects differed for pine and hardwood species. This work was recently published in Forest Science. We also have empirically explored alternative land-use modeling frameworks with the goal of making pine plantation establishment an endogenous component of the model. Initial empirical estimates are promising, but estimating the significance of agricultural and forest rents in land-use shifts has been problematic. The extent of pine plantations is a key variable in measuring both the economic and ecologic impact of climate stressors. A third avenue of research is predicting the price responsiveness of management intensity. Plantation management intensity affects growth rates, timber supply, and carbon sequestration. A fourth component is to expand the economic simulation framework to account for tree size distributions and allow the simulation of multiple product markets (e.g., pulpwood and sawtimber). This framework has been successfully developed. The single product version of the timber market model was used to develop the timber supply projections in the recently published Southern Forest Resource Assessment.
Future Activities:
The next step of this research project is to determine which combination of the model refinements will be incorporated into the integrated assessment modeling system. For the ecological component, this will involve testing the linked gap-process model against regionwide data from the Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. For the economic system, this will require choosing the most robust combination of the new timber supply, land use, and management frameworks. For example, the data requirements of the multi-product framework may preclude use of the endogenous inventory system.
The economic and ecological link will be accomplished using the inventory component of the ecological system. The economic component will pass harvest to the ecological system and the ecological system will pass inventory information back to the economic model. The linked system will then be used to test regional vulnerability in an integrated framework. The key variable affecting the completion schedule is the length of time devoted to model linkage and validation.
Journal Articles on this Report : 7 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 17 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Ahn S, Plantinga AJ, Alig RJ. Determinants and projections of land use in the south central United States. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 2002;26(2):78-84. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
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McNulty SG. Hurricane impacts on U.S. forest carbon sequestration. Environmental Pollution 2002;116(1):S17-S24. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
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Mickler RA, Earnhardt TS, Moore JA. Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass. Environmental Pollution 2002;116(Suppl. 1):S7-S16. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
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Oren R, Ellsworth DS, Johnsen KH, Phillips N, Ewers BE, Maier C, Schafer KVR, McCarthy H, Hendrey G, McNulty SG, Katul GG. Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a CO2-enriched atmosphere. Nature 2001;411(6836):469-472. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
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Pattanayak SK, Murray BC, Abt RC. How joint is joint forest production? An econometric analysis of timber supply conditional on endogenous amenity values. Forest Science 2002;48(3):479-491. |
R828785 (2001) R828785 (Final) |
Exit Exit |
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Prestemon JP, Abt RC. Southern forest resource assessment highlights: the southern timber market to 2040. Journal of Forestry 2002;100(7):16-22. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
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Price DT, Zimmerman NE, Van Der Meer PJ, Lexer MJ, Leadley P, Jorritsma ITM, Schaber J, Clark DF, Lasch P, McNulty S, Wu J, Smith B. Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change. Climatic Change 2001;51(3-4):475-508. |
R828785 (2001) |
not available |
Supplemental Keywords:
climate change, forest ecosystems, ecological process models, economic models, ecological risk assessment, integrated assessment, land-use change., RFA, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, climate change, Economics, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, decision-making, Ecological Risk Assessment, Economics & Decision Making, Ecological Indicators, anthropogenic stress, ecological exposure, environmental monitoring, meteorology, carbon emissions, climate change impact, ozone, climate studies, forest ecosystems, socioeconomic indicators, socioeconomics, forest reources, economic models, carbon dioxide, land use change, environmental stressors, changing environmental conditions, landscape characterization, regional scale model, forest resources, forest productivity model, ecological models, climate variability, climatic models, integrated ecological economic modelProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.