Grantee Research Project Results
2014 Progress Report: Constraining Urban-To-Global Scale Estimates of Black Carbon Distributions, Sources, Regional Climate Impacts, and Co-Benefit Metrics with Advanced Coupled Dynamic - Chemical Transport - Adjoint Models
EPA Grant Number: R835037Title: Constraining Urban-To-Global Scale Estimates of Black Carbon Distributions, Sources, Regional Climate Impacts, and Co-Benefit Metrics with Advanced Coupled Dynamic - Chemical Transport - Adjoint Models
Investigators: Carmichael, Gregory R. , Henze, Daven K , Grell, Georg , Spak, Scott
Institution: University of Iowa , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , University of Colorado at Boulder
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2014 (Extended to August 31, 2015)
Project Period Covered by this Report: September 1, 2013 through August 31,2014
Project Amount: $895,432
RFA: Black Carbon's Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality (2010) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
In this project we will evaluate and rank sources of uncertainty in modeling BC concentrations and their radiative impacts. The uncertainties analyzed will include those associated with model parameters as well as model structure. We will use this information to improve model representation of BC distributions. We will reduce the uncertainties in BC distributions and radiative impacts through the close integration of observations and models. We will evaluate the uncertainties using novel metrics developed in this project, that will reflect competing effects of co-pollutants and that account for air quality and climate impacts.
Progress Summary:
Major activities of this research has been to further develop adjoint sensitivity and data assimilation tools and to use them in novel applications directed at reducing the uncertainties in ambient BC distributions and their associated environmental impacts, and in better informing decision makers. To illustrate the later point we have conducted full-year global adjoint calculations in GEOS-Chem for speciated aerosol emissions sensitivities, direct radiative forcing (globally and in four latitude bands), and population-weighted concentrations. Simulations have employed present-day and RCP 2050 emissions scenarios to support development of emissions elasticity curves. From these, we have calculated radiative forcing metrics, including Forcing Amplifier and Emissions Reduction Efficiency by sector and region, for all megacities. A key result has been identifying locations and sectors where global, regional, and Arctic radiative forcing and warming are orders of magnitude more sensitive to emissions reductions than global population-weighted PM2.5 (Figure A). We have thereby, for the first time, identified regions and activities where air quality improvements can be considered a co-benefit to mitigating SLCF by aerosols.
Future Activities:
References:
Zhang, L., Henze, D. K., Grell, G. A., Carmichael, G. R., Bousserez, N., Zhang, Q., and Cao, J.: Constraining black carbon aerosol over Southeast Asia using OMI aerosol absorption optical depth and the adjoint of GEOS-Chem, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 14, 28385-28452, doi:10.5194/acpd-14-28385-2014, 2014.
Saide, P.E., G. R. Carmichael, Z. Liu, C. S. Schwartz, H. C. Lin, A. M. da Silva, E. Hyer (2013). Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a size-resolved sectional model: impacts of observationally constrained, multi-wavelength and fine mode retrievals on regional scale forecasts, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10425-10444, 2013.
Journal Articles on this Report : 14 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 70 publications | 27 publications in selected types | All 27 journal articles |
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Guerrette JJ, Henze DK. Development and application of the WRFPLUS-Chem online chemistry adjoint WRFDA-Chem assimilation system. Geoscientific Model Development 2015;8(6):1857-1876. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Huang M Carmichael GR, Kulkarni S, Streets DG, Lu Z, Zhang Q, Pierce RB, Kondo Y, Jimenez JL, Cubison MJ, Anderson B, Wisthaler A. Sectoral and geographical contributions to summertime continental United States (CONUS) black carbon spatial distributions. Atmospheric Environment 2012;51:165-174. |
R835037 (2012) R835037 (2013) R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Kulkarni S, Sobhani N, Miller-Schulze JP, Shafer MM, Schauer JJ, Solomon PA, Saide PE, Spak SN, Cheng YF, Denier van der Gon HAC, Lu Z, Streets DG, Janssens-Maenhout G, Wiedinmyer C, Lantz J, Artamonova M, Chen B, Imashev S, Sverdlik L, Deminter JT, Adhikary B, D'Allura A, Wei C, Carmichael GR. Source sector and region contributions to BC and PM2.5 in Central Asia. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(4):1683-1705. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Mao YH, Li QB, Henze DK, Jiang Z, Jones DBA, Kopacz M, He C, Qi L, Gao M, Hao W-M, Liou K-N. Estimates of black carbon emissions in the western United States using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(13):7685-7702. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Marrapu P, Cheng Y, Beig G, Sahu S, Srinivas R, Carmichael GR. Air quality in Delhi during the Commonwealth Games. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(19):10619-10630. |
R835037 (2013) R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Mena-Carrasco M, Saide P, Delgado R, Hernandez P, Spak S, Molina L, Carmichael G, Jiang X. Regional climate feedbacks in Central Chile and their effect on air quality episodes and meteorology. Urban Climate 2014;10(5):771-781. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Nordmann S, Cheng YF, Carmichael GR, Yu M, Denier van der Gon HAC, Zhang Q, Saide PE, Poschl U, Su H, Birmili W, Wiedensohler A. Atmospheric black carbon and warming effects influenced by the source and absorption enhancement in central Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(23):12683-12699. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Saide PE, Carmichael GR, Liu Z, Schwartz CS, Lin HC, da Silva AM, Hyer E. Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a size-resolved sectional model: impacts of observationally constrained, multi-wavelength and fine mode retrievals on regional scale analyses and forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2013;13(20):10425-10444. |
R835037 (2013) R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Saide PE, Kim J, Song CH, Choi M, Cheng Y, Carmichael GR. Assimilation of next generation geostationary aerosol optical depth retrievals to improve air quality simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 2014;41(24):9188-9196. |
R835037 (2014) |
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Saide PE, Spak SN, Pierce RB, Otkin JA, Schaack TK, Heidinger AK, da Silva AM, Kacenelenbogen M, Redemann J, Carmichael GR. Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 2015;42(3):956-965. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Shen Z, Liu J, Horowitz LW, Henze DK, Fan S, Levy II H, Mauzerall DL, Lin J-T, Tao S. Analysis of transpacific transport of black carbon during HIPPO-3: implications for black carbon aging. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2014;14(12):6315-6327. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Tsao C-C, Campbell JE, Mena-Carrasco M, Spak SN, Carmichael GR, Chen Y. Biofuels that cause land-use change may have much larger non-GHG air quality emissions than fossil fuels. Environmental Science & Technology 2012;46(19):10835-10841. |
R835037 (2013) R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Zhang L, Kok JF, Henze DK, Li Q, Zhao C. Improving simulations of fine dust surface concentrations over the western United States by optimizing the particle size distribution. Geophysical Research Letters 2013;40(12):3270-3275. |
R835037 (2013) R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Zhang L, Henze DK, Grell GA, Carmichael GR, Bousserez N, Zhang Q, Torres O, Ahn C, Lu Z, Cao J, Mao Y. Constraining black carbon aerosol over Asia using OMI aerosol absorption optical depth and the adjoint of GEOS-Chem. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2015;15(18):10281-10308. |
R835037 (2014) R835037 (Final) |
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Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.