Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Study the Impact of Global Change on Air Quality Using the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research and Forecast Model with Chemistry
EPA Grant Number: R833376Title: Study the Impact of Global Change on Air Quality Using the Global-Through-Urban Weather Research and Forecast Model with Chemistry
Investigators: Zhang, Yang , Streets, David G. , Karamchandani, Prakash
Institution: North Carolina State University , Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. , Argonne National Laboratory
Current Institution: North Carolina State University , Argonne National Laboratory , Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: May 7, 2007 through May 6, 2011 (Extended to May 6, 2012)
Project Period Covered by this Report: May 7, 2010 through May 6,2011
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Consequences of Global Change For Air Quality (2006) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Air
Objective:
Progress Summary:
During this project period, we have accomplished several tasks in model development, applications and evaluations that are critical to achieving our goals. We added NOx emissions from lighting, fixed problems in the default online dust emission module, made the MEGAN emission module operational for both mesoscale and global WRF/Chem, and also improved model treatments of PM size distribution and nucleation parameterizations. We applied GU-WRF/Chem to global and regional domains for comprehensive model evaluation using both satellite and ground-based measurements provided from our collaborators in Europe and Asia and publicly available websites. We also applied GU-WRF/Chem for one current-year (2001) and five future-year (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) simulations. Our results have been published in several journal papers. Our major findings and their significances are summarized below.
- Simulated aerosol number concentrations are very sensitive to the different nucleation parameterizations used in GU-WRF/Chem. Relatively smaller impacts are found on aerosol indirect effects in terms of CCN and CDNC, likely due to insufficient and/or slow growth of nanoparticles that can be further improved in the final project year.
- Applications and evaluations of WRF/Chem-MADRID over CONUS, Europe, and Asia for backcasting of past pollution episodes show an overall satisfactory performance. Large biases in model predictions of some species or variables can be explained by uncertainties in emissions and model treatments.
- Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID over the eastern U.S. for real-time air quality forecasting demonstrates good forecasting skill that is consistent with current RT-AQF models. Sensitivity simulations show that the use of the online BVOC emissions can improve PM2.5 forecasts in areas with high BVOC emissions and adjusting lateral boundaries can improve domainwide O3 and PM2.5 predictions.
- Different aerosol modules lead to large differences in predictions of aerosols and corresponding aerosol direct, semi-direct and indirect effects. Such differences are mainly due to different aerosol treatments in thermodynamics/SOA.
- Preliminary results of GU-WRF/Chem for current- and future-year simulations show warmer and drier weather in the future. The changes in future O3 and PM2.5 concentrations depend on changed climate conditions and subsequent changes in BVOC emissions, as well as projected anthropogenic emissions of their precursors. In response to changes in climate and emissions, the surface-level concentrations of O3 are predicted to increase over most of regions in all seasons, and those of PM2.5 are predicted to decrease in summer but increase in other seasons.
Future Activities:
During the final project year, we will complete the implementation of the plume-in-grid treatments into GU-WRF/Chem and conduct simulations over the CONUS and Eastern United States with and without PiG treatment to evaluate the impact of a more accurate plume treatment on simulated air quality and aerosol direct and indirect effects. We also will complete model applications and evaluations over several regional domains including CONUS, Europe and Asia. WRF/Chem-MADRID will continue to be used for RT-AQF for the remaining O3 seasons in 2011 and during winter 2011/2012. One caveat is that the results for current- and future-year simulations shown in this report are preliminary and do not include updated MEGAN BVOCs emission module and lighting NOx emissions. We will complete the final production simulations and evaluations for the year 2001, several sensitivity simulations for different physical and chemical options and configurations, and all future-year simulations under future climate/emission scenarios. In addition, we will continue to disseminate our research results at national/international conferences/workshops and prepare manuscripts for publication in peer-reviewed journals based on those final production results.
Journal Articles on this Report : 6 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 124 publications | 22 publications in selected types | All 20 journal articles |
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Chuang M-T, Zhang Y, Kang D. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID for real-time air quality forecasting over the Southeastern United States. Atmospheric Environment 2011;45(34):6241-6250. |
R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Karamchandani P, Zhang Y, Chen S-Y, Balmori-Bronson R. Development of an extended chemical mechanism for global-through-urban applications. Atmospheric Pollution Research 2012;3(1):1-24. |
R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Misenis C, Zhang Y. An examination of sensitivity of WRF/Chem predictions to physical parameterizations, horizontal grid spacing, and nesting options. Atmospheric Research 2010;97(3):315-334. |
R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Pan Y, Wang K, Fast JD, Grell GA. WRF/Chem-MADRID: incorporation of an aerosol module into WRF/Chem and its initial application to the TexAQS2000 episode. Journal of Geophysical Research 2010;115(D18):D18202 (32 pp.) |
R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Wen X-Y, Jang CJ. Simulating chemistry–aerosol–cloud–radiation–climate feedbacks over the continental U.S. using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). Atmospheric Environment 2010;44(29):3568-3582. |
R833376 (2009) R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Zhang Y, Chen Y, Sarwar G, Schere K. Impact of gas-phase mechanisms on Weather Research Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) predictions: mechanism implementation and comparative evaluation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 2012;117(D1):D01301 (31 pp.) |
R833376 (2010) R833376 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
global-through-urban WRF/Chem, air quality modeling, climate modeling, coupled meteorology and air quality, aerosols, air quality-climate change feedbacks, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, air quality modelingRelevant Websites:
The research and resulting publications are disseminated via the website of Zhang’s group at http://www.meas.ncsu.edu/aqforecasting/ ExitProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.