Grantee Research Project Results
2003 Progress Report: Application of a Unified Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate GCM to Understand the Effects of Changing Climate and Global Anthropogenic Emissions on U.S. Air Quality
EPA Grant Number: R830959Title: Application of a Unified Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate GCM to Understand the Effects of Changing Climate and Global Anthropogenic Emissions on U.S. Air Quality
Investigators: Jacob, Daniel J. , Streets, David G. , Mickley, Loretta J. , Rind, David , Seinfeld, John , Fu, Joshua
Institution: Harvard University , University of Tennessee , Argonne National Laboratory , California Institute of Technology
Current Institution: Harvard University , Argonne National Laboratory , California Institute of Technology , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies , University of Tennessee
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2005 (Extended to January 1, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2003 through January 1, 2004
Project Amount: $900,000
RFA: Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Air Quality: Sensitivity of U.S. Air Quality to Climate Change and Future Global Impacts (2002) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change
Objective:
The objective of this research project is to provide an integrated assessment of the effects of global change, including changes in both climate and anthropogenic emissions, on ozone and particulate matter (PM) air quality in the United States from 2000 to 2050. The project will represent the first attempt to examine the response of air pollution meteorology to climate change. Presently, the sign and magnitude of this response essentially are unknown. The specific objectives of this research project are to identify and quantify the contributing impacts from: (1) changes in atmospheric transport (e.g., mixing depths, frequency of stagnation episodes, regional ventilation, and intercontinental transport); (2) climate-sensitive natural emissions of ozone and PM precursors; and (3) climate-sensitive ozone and PM chemistry. The project will lay the foundation for investigating the effects of climate change on exceedances of air quality standards through nesting of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model inside a global chemistry-aerosol transport model.
Progress Summary:
In Year 1 of the project, we completed a pilot study using tracers of anthropogenic pollution in a global circulation model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) 2’, to track the effect of climate change on air pollution meteorology in the United States. The results show that the severity and duration of summertime regional pollution episodes in the Midwest and Northeast increase significantly relative to the present. Pollutant concentrations in these episodes increase by 5-10 percent and the mean episode duration increases from 2 to 3-4 days. The increase appears to be driven by a decline in the frequency of midlatitude cyclone tracking across Southeastern Canada.
Argonne has completed emission inventories for ozone and PM precursors as well as for primary PM for all four main Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to 2050. The inventories include the first model-based forecasts of carbonaceous aerosol emissions. The GISS has completed work on the next version of the 23-layer model (Model 3), which features an improved boundary layer scheme. Harvard University has constructed an interface between the GCM and the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-CHEM, a chemistry-aerosol tracer model that until now has been driven by assimilated meteorology. The interface permits chemical simulations in future atmospheres. The University of Tennessee has focused on downscaling GISS meteorological fields for use in the Mesoscale Model 5 and GEOS-CHEM chemical-aerosol fields for the CMAQ. Finally, the California Institute of Technology has implemented secondary organic aerosols into the GEOS-CHEM.
Future Activities:
We will perform transient GCM simulations from 1950 to 2050 and diagnose trends in air pollution meteorology in Year 2 of the project. Using meteorological fields provided by the GCM, we will perform full chemistry simulations with the GEOS-CHEM for the present-day and future climates. We will conduct empirical orthogonal function analyses of ozone and PM regional variability in the United States using both observations and model output. Finally, we will complete the interface between the GEOS-CHEM and the CMAQ.
Journal Articles:
No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 23 publications for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
chemical transport, volatile organic compounds, VOCs, nitrogen oxides, sulfates, organics, pollution prevention, environmental chemistry, modeling, climate models, tropospheric ozone, tropospheric aerosol, particulate matter, PM, climate change, regional model, air pollution meteorology,, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, particulate matter, climate change, Chemistry, Monitoring/Modeling, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, atmospheric dispersion models, anthropogenic stress, aerosol formation, ambient aerosol, atmospheric particulate matter, environmental monitoring, environmental measurement, meteorology, climatic influence, global change, ozone, air quality models, climate, climate models, greenhouse gases, airborne aerosols, atmospheric aerosol particles, atmospheric transport, environmental stress, ecological models, climate model, greenhouse gas, atmospheric models, aerosols, Global Climate Change, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, ambient air pollutionRelevant Websites:
http://www-as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/gcap Exit
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.