Grantee Research Project Results

1999 Progress Report: Integrating Planning, Forecasting, and Watershed Level Ecological Risk Assessment Techniques: A Test in the Eastern Cornbelt Plains Ecoregion

EPA Grant Number: R824769
Title: Integrating Planning, Forecasting, and Watershed Level Ecological Risk Assessment Techniques: A Test in the Eastern Cornbelt Plains Ecoregion
Investigators: Gordon, Steven I. , White, Dale A , Ward, Andy
Institution: The Ohio State University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1995 through September 1, 1998
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1998 through September 1, 1999
Project Amount: $445,000
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1995) RFA Text |  Recipients Lists
Research Category: Watersheds , Water

Objective:

The objectives of this research are to: (1) test the relationships between biological conditions of streams and the nature and distribution of human activities on the watershed; (2) demonstrate methods for linking physical models of urban and agricultural impacts on runoff volume and runoff quality; (3) define the relationships between physical model forecasts and the biological conditions of streams; and (4) integrate all of the findings into an expert system to be used by planners.

Progress Summary:

The objectives of this research are to: (1) test the relationships between biological conditions of streams and the nature and distribution of human activities on the watershed; (2) demonstrate methods for linking physical models of urban and agricultural impacts on runoff volume and runoff quality; (3) define the relationships between physical model forecasts and the biological conditions of streams; and (4) integrate all of the findings into an expert system to be used by planners.

Progress Summary/Accomplishments: Using a comprehensive regional database, we have been able to test watershed-scale relationships between biological measures of water quality and watershed characteristics. These have been derived in the form of regression models where the dependent variable is our measure of biological quality?the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), a measure of the diversity of the fish community. The independent variables are watershed land use distribution variables, stream habitat condition as measured by several components of the Qualitative Habitat Evaluation Index, a proxy for point source pollution based on selected point source discharge variables, stream order, and several soils variables. The best results were obtained by subdividing the sample into two subpopulations, one with watersheds that have more urban land uses, and one with little (mostly agricultural) land uses.

The watershed-scale modeling and data analysis were accomplished primarily as the work of Sarada Majumdu, a Ph.D. candidate in City and Regional Planning at The Ohio State University. In Year 2, we were able to assemble a large, regional database for the Eastern Cornbelt Plains Ecoregion. The stream geographic information system (GIS) files were used as the basis to divide the region into two distinct sets of watersheds. Data were assembled on 25 coarse-scale watersheds, which were further subdivided into 137 finer-scale watersheds.

For the region as a whole, LANDSAT imagery was utilized to define the major land use categories across the region. The LANDSAT imagery was superimposed on the two watershed coverages to extract the land use distribution by watershed for each set of watersheds. A number of other data were compiled using the same geographic base. We assembled the dataset for the IBI, the metric for the health of the fish community measured by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency between 1989 and 1994. The data were collected at 522 locations throughout the watersheds.

We have been able to define a set of empirical models for the Eastern Cornbelt Plains Ecoregion that explain a significant amount of the variation in IBI levels across watersheds. Tables 1 and 2 summarize the results for the two different sets of watersheds. The models are all statistically significant at the 0.01 or 0.05 level. They will allow us to define a watershed screening model that allows planners to input changes in land use, and forecast the changes that might occur to biological diversity if no ameliorative actions are taken.

Table 1: Regression results using land use and soil variables for the smaller watersheds, agricultural watersheds

Model Description	Independent Variables	Partial Regression Coefficients	Standardized Coefficients	Adjusted R Squared/ Sample Size
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, stream order, and stream habitat variables	Substrate** Riparian* Pool** Dense urban land use** Strahler Stream order**	0.740 0.753 1.215 -3.888 1.940	0.295 0.120 0.282 -0.198 0.203	0.392 317
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, stream order, and stream habitat variables	Substrate** Pool** Agricultural land ** Forested land** Strahler Stream order**	0.845 1.192 0.372 1.046 1.896	-0.337 0.277 -0.232 -0.283 0.198	0.381 317
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, point source pollutants, and stream habitat variables	Substrate** Dense urban land use* Sum of ranks of LEAPS Ammonia and fecal coliform** (First order distance decay)	1.289 -4.844 -3.226	-0.505 -0.217 -0.446	0.619 55
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, combined point source pollutants, stream habitat variables, and soil component	Substrate** Dense urban land use** Sum of ranks of LEAPS Ammonia and fecal coliform** (First order distance decay) Well drained, corrosive soil component**	1.184 -6.826 -2.069 -5.336	0.463 -0.306 -0.286 -0.353	0.705 55

**Coefficient significant at the 0.01 level (2 tailed)

*Coefficient significant at the 0.05 level (2 tailed)

Table 2: Regression results using land use and soil variables for the smaller watersheds, urban watersheds

Model Description	Independent Variables	Partial Regression Coefficients	Standardized Coefficients	Adjusted R Squared/ Sample Size
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, stream order, and stream habitat variables	Substrate** Pool** Dense urban land use** Strahler Stream order*	0.476 1.119 -0.611 1.163	0.194 0.319 -0.378 0.156	0.370 145
IBI at specific sampling locations as a function of watershed land use, and point and nonpoint source pollutants	Substrate** Dense urban land use** Sum of ranks of STORET Ammonia and phosphorus* (Inverse distance weighted and averaged for the upstream reaches)	0.685 -0.803 -1.574	0.332 -0.582 -0.203	0.516 59

**Coefficient significant at the 0.01 level (2 tailed)

*Coefficient significant at the 0.05 level (2 tailed)

Future Activities:

Our final work will be to refine the models further and test for the effects of spatial autocorrelation and a different representation of distance decay of pollutants. We also hope to implement a set of linked simulation models to test against the empirical results.

Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views

Other project views:	All 14 publications	2 publications in selected types	All 2 journal articles

Publications

Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Gordon SI, Majumder S. Empirical stressor-response relationships for prospective risk analysis in the Eastern Cornbelt Plains ecoregion. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 2000;19(4):1106-1112.	R824769 (1999) R824769 (Final)	not available
Journal Article	Jones AL, Gordon SI. From plan to practice: Implementing watershed-based strategies into local, state, and federal policy. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 2000;19(4 Pt 2):1136-1142.	R824769 (1999) R824769 (Final)	not available

Supplemental Keywords:

ecological modeling, risk assessment, regional watershed models, riparian zone modeling, watershed biological diversity, water quality modeling, MUIR, STATSGO, sediment, ADAPT, SWMM., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Toxics, Water, Geographic Area, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Nutrients, Water & Watershed, Ecology, Hydrology, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, exploratory research environmental biology, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Environmental Chemistry, pesticides, Chemistry, State, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Human Health, Wet Weather Flows, Biology, Watersheds, Ecological Indicators, EPA Region, aquatic ecosystem, agriculturally impacted watershed, anthropogenic stress, environmental monitoring, nutrient supply, nutrient transport, remote sensing, risk assessment, ecological risk assessment, riparian zone conditions, biological condition, field scale process model, human activities, physical model forecasts, streams, runoff, agricultural watershed, urban runoff, sediment, Georgia (GA), Cornbelt Plains Ecoregion, plant growth, statistical model, Ohio (OH), aquatic ecosystems, Index of Biological Integrity (IBI), remotely sensed data, Region 5, land use, stream ecosystem, agriculture , decision analysis tool, forecasting, land management

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

1996

1997

Final Report