Grantee Research Project Results

2002 Progress Report: Integrating Economic and Physical Data to Forecast Land Use Change and Environmental Consequences for California's Coastal Watersheds.

EPA Grant Number: R829803
Title: Integrating Economic and Physical Data to Forecast Land Use Change and Environmental Consequences for California's Coastal Watersheds.
Investigators: Merenlender, Adina , Biging, Greg , Landis, John
Institution: University of California - Berkeley
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: July 1, 2002 through June 30, 2004
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 1, 2002 through June 30, 2003
Project Amount: $259,454
RFA: Futures: Research in Socio-Economics (2001) RFA Text
Research Category: Nanotechnology , Watersheds , Environmental Justice

Objective:

The objective of this research project is to examine the environmental consequences of land use change for California's coastal watersheds experiencing rapid urban and agricultural expansion. These foremost land use stresses can cause cumulative impacts to these coastal watersheds that affect anadromous fish. The specific objectives of this research project are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit, economic land use change model; (2) compare the proposed economic modeling approach to a more traditional noneconomic (or reduced form) land use model; (3) determine changes in land cover based on the resulting scenarios of land use change; and (4) address consequences for coastal Mediterranean watersheds and instream habitat for endangered salmon.

Progress Summary:

We incorporated economic variables into spatially explicit land use change models to predict probabilities of vineyard and residential conversion at the parcel level in Sonoma County, CA. Specifically, we developed two economic land use change models, one based on hedonic price techniques and the other on expected net present value (NPV), and compared them to a more traditional noneconomic model based on physical attributes. Results from the hedonic price modeling showed that slope had a very significant negative effect on land value per acre, whereas proximity to Santa Rosa and growing degree days had a positive effect on land value. Lot size had a significant negative effect on residential land value. For vineyard land value, the floodplain, slope, and lot size had a negative effect, while grape price and lag in land price positively influenced vineyard land value. Significant lot size and zoning coefficients indicated that current or potential residential development can influence vineyard parcel values. As a result, hedonic price techniques may not discriminate between vineyard and residential conversions with a high level of accuracy.

The expected NPV model resolved the issue of vineyard discrimination by entirely focusing on the land value from vineyard production. Tobit regression results indicated that the ratio of planted vineyard acres to lot size heavily depended on physical factors such as terrain, microclimate, and soil suitability. Flatter slopes and warmer growing degree day conditions increased the proportion of vineyard planted for a given site. Thus, the expected NPV model improved the prediction of vineyard conversion by removing the influence of residential potential.

Estimation results from the two economic models demonstrated that higher residential and vineyard land values are positively associated with residential and vineyard conversion. In other words, the land values as explanatory variables help to determine whether a developable parcel is converted but does not discriminate well between residential and vineyard conversion. Comparison of the two economic modeling approaches to a reduced or physically based land use model showed that the reduced form model resulted in the highest accuracy in predicting land use change (73.7 percent overall for the land use types). Although this model yields greater accuracy for predicting past land use conversions, it does not explicitly establish a relationship between relative land value and land use conversion. For this reason, the structural models hold more promise in understanding where and when future land use conversion will take place.

Research projects related to the effects of land use conversion on in-stream habitat quality are in progress. In particular, we are exploring the relationship between land use change and in-stream embeddedness in depositional reaches that are a potential spawning habitat for salmonid. Preliminary analyses of these data show a strong relationship between embeddedness and proportion of urban and agricultural land use in the watersheds.

Future Activities:

In the next year, we will upgrade the economic models to improve the probability land use change models. We will continue to develop models to estimate and predict the effects of residential and vineyard conversion on in-stream processes. These research projects currently are focusing on the impacts of land use changes on sedimentation production to streams and stream hydrology. Ultimately, we will combine the various scenarios of land use change with the biophysical models to determine the influence, cumulative impacts, and other potential environmental effects of land use on stream habitat.

Journal Articles:

No journal articles submitted with this report: View all 26 publications for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

biodiversity, farmer, land owner, ecosystem, decision-making, socio-economic, agroecology, biology, northwest, social science, ecology, environmental assets, cost-benefit., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Air, Geographic Area, Water, ECOSYSTEMS, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Economics & Decision Making, State, Urban and Regional Planning, Atmosphere, Watersheds, decision-making, Monitoring/Modeling, Air Pollution Effects, Social Science, Species, Hydrology, climate change, Habitat, Water & Watershed, California (CA), economic research, urban planning, coastal watershed, predictive model, socioeconomics, urbanization, biodiversity, conservation biology, endangered species, habitat disturbance, water quality, coastal wetlands, ecosystem valuation, policy making, coastal ecosystems, management alternatives, endangered salmon, habitat dynamics, land use effects, environmental monitoring, environmental decision making, econometrics, fish habitat, habitat preservation, changing environmental conditions, land use, aquatic habitat protection , ecology assessment models, hedonic models, Anadromous fish, assessing ecosystem vulnerability, community based environmental planning, decision making, econometric analysis, environmental policy, watershed, urbanizing watersheds

Relevant Websites:

http://rriis.migcom.com/ Exit
http://qa-gis.migcom.com/website/russian3/viewer.htm Exit
http://hopland.uchrec.org Exit

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

2003 Progress Report

Final Report