Grantee Research Project Results
1998 Progress Report: Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Great Lakes Ecosystems
EPA Grant Number: R825150Title: Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Great Lakes Ecosystems
Investigators: Hobbs, Benjamin F. , Locci, Ana B. , Koonce, Joseph F.
Institution: The Johns Hopkins University , Case Western Reserve University
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: October 1, 1996 through September 30, 1999
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 1998
Project Amount: $620,259
RFA: Ecological Assessment (1996) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The 1994 State of the (Great) Lakes Ecosystem Conference recommended that an ecosystem approach be adopted for studying Great Lakes ecosystem problems and the stresses that cause them; that well defined ecosystem objectives be defined to measure success in restoring ecosystem integrity; and that roundtable and interdisciplinary approaches to decision making be taken that aim for consensus among stakeholders. The purpose of this project is to develop modeling and decision methods that could be used to respond to those recommendations.
In particular, the goal of the project is to develop and test an integrated ecological assessment and decision methodology for the Lake Erie ecosystem. The methodology is to be designed to assist managers and stakeholders involved in the Lake Erie Lakewide Management Plan (LaMP) and other Lake Erie management processes to define objectives and evaluate tradeoffs and risks associated with future uses. The research plan builds on existing initiatives and addresses fishery and water quality management concerns:
- interaction of invasions of exotic species, nutrient reductions, and fishery harvests;
- influence of nearshore and tributary habitat on offshore community structure and productivity;
- effects of alteration of offshore community on contaminant body burdens of fish; and sensitivity of emerging ecosystem objectives to climate change.
The products of the research will be
- an expanded Lake Erie Ecosystem Model (LEEM; modifications are to include habitat, hydrology, and climate change components);
- applications of LEEM to ecologic scientific and management questions;
- development and application of methodologies for decision making under multiple objectives and risks; and
- workshops in which Lake Erie managers and other participants in the Lake Erie LaMP apply and evaluate LEEM and the multiobjective risk decision methods.
Progress Summary:
During the first two years of the project, LEEM has been enhanced as follows. First, modeling methods and data have been developed for representing the effect of habitat availability (tributary, near shore, and offshore) upon recruitment, with explicit accounting for lake level and tributary flow effects. This work has been undertaken in collaboration with the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and US and Canadian fishery researchers. Second, better understanding of model resolution (including time and spatial scale and fish population age structure) has been obtained by exploring how alternative model formulations affect model behavior and error propagation. The results are supportive of the coarse time and spatial scales now in LEEM, and its incorporation of age structure. Third, error propagation capabilities are included using Monte Carlo simulation.
LEEM has been used to address the following scientific and management questions:
- the desirability of multispecies fishery quota management compared to single species management, and their interactions with ecosystem (productivity) constraints;
- tradeoffs among alternative definitions of ecosystem integrity that would result from changes in phosphorus management; and
- the relative roles of zebra mussels, decreasing phosphorus loadings, and predator-prey interactions in the recent declines in yellow perch and walleye populations.
Alternative methods for analyzing tradeoffs among competing objectives and uncertainty have been demonstrated by application to phosphorus management. In the coming year, project investigators will cooperate with the Ecosystem Objectives Subcommittee of the Lake Erie LaMP to design and implement a stakeholder consultation process in which these methods will be used to communicate tradeoffs in phosphorus and habitat management and elicit value judgments concerning their desirability.
Future Activities:
Application of LEEM to address tradeoffs and uncertainties involved in invading species, habitat management, and climatic change; decision tree analyses of the value of research on these issues; and workshops involving stakeholders and Lake Erie managers who will evaluate LEEM and the multiobjective risk methods developed during this project.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 65 publications | 13 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
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Chao PT, Hobbs BF, Venkatesh BN. How climate uncertainty should be included in Great Lakes management: Modeling workshop results. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1999;35(6):1485-1497. |
R825150 (1998) R825150 (1999) R825150 (Final) |
Exit |
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Linville CD, Hobbs BF, Venkatesh BN. Estimation of error and bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo decision analysis using the bootstrap. Risk Analysis 2001;21(1):63-74. |
R825150 (1998) R825150 (1999) R825150 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
multicriteria decision making, ecosystem health, fisheries management, Great Lakes Water Quality agreement, RFA, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Ecological Risk Assessment, Ecosystem Protection, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, exploratory research environmental biology, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Great Lakes, Environmental Monitoring, biodiversity, ecosystem assessment, water quality, assessment models, ecological assessment, hydrological, interactive stressors, stakeholders, risk assessment, climate variability, limnology, decision tool, wildlife, lake erie, aquatic ecosystems, exotic species, fish , modeling, climate change impactRelevant Websites:
http://129.22.156.18/leem.htm 
http://129.22.156.152/ABIA/
http://www.ijc.org/boards/letf/letfreports.html
Progress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.