Grantee Research Project Results
2018 Progress Report: Integrated Analysis of Land Use-Based Policies for Improving Air and Water Quality: A Focus on Agricultural Reactive Nitrogen and Wildland Fire Emissions as Climate, Land Use and Anthropogenic Emissions Change
EPA Grant Number: R835880Title: Integrated Analysis of Land Use-Based Policies for Improving Air and Water Quality: A Focus on Agricultural Reactive Nitrogen and Wildland Fire Emissions as Climate, Land Use and Anthropogenic Emissions Change
Investigators: Russell, Armistead G. , Burtraw, Dallas , Driscoll, Charles T. , Odman, Mehmet Talat , Shih, Jhih-Shyang , Smith, Richard
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Syracuse University , United States Geological Survey , Resources for the Future
Current Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology , Resources for the Future , Syracuse University , United States Geological Survey
EPA Project Officer: Chung, Serena
Project Period: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 (Extended to December 31, 2020)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2018 through December 31,2018
Project Amount: $789,820
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Air
Objective:
Land use-based policies can be an attractive approach to improve air quality with the co-benefit of decreasing reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition and improving water quality. An integrated modeling framework is being developed to investigate a range of land use-based policies to mitigate particulate matter levels, atmospheric Nr deposition and associated impacts on water quality and sensitive ecosystems. Land use policies are being assessed across multiple environmental endpoints of concern, with a focus on identifying cost effective strategies and those with benefits in one or more media.
Progress Summary:
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- Climate data preparation: The meteorological fields for the period 2028–2032 (under RCP4.5 and 8.5) were derived using WRF with spectral nudging. The data for the 2028–2032 period will be used for model simulations of the near-future. The MACA dataset was also used in the project. This dataset is a collection of multi-model projections of major meteorological variables and were incorporated in this project with reduced-form models developed from the dynamic model outputs (as described below) to provide multi-model projections of agricultural land NH3 emissions.
- Evaluation of agricultural land NH3 emissions under climate change: During this reporting period, the FESTC v1.4 and CMAQ v5.3 beta became available, containing major changes and error corrections in the source codes of fertilizer application and of NH3 bidirectional exchange modules. Recommended by EPA, we reconducted the simulations of FEST-C–CMAQ-BIDI for the periods 2008–2012, 2048–2052, and 2098–2099 under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on agricultural land NH3 emissions. Based on the dynamic model outputs, we established a reduced-form model using temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and fractions of individual land use types as predictors to simulate agricultural land NH3 emissions. Incorporated with MACA dataset, this reduced-form model was then used to predict agricultural land NH3 emissions with consideration of multi-model climate projections.
- Evaluation of biogenic emissions under climate change: We conducted BEIS simulations under RCP8.5 and with consideration of a collection of 16 land use change projections. We noticed that BEIS v61 does not account for the impact of leaf area indices (LAIs) on leaf temperature. Therefore, the relevant scheme applied in MEGAN was incorporated in BEIS. For comparison, we are also evaluating biogenic emissions using MEGAN2.1 driven by the same set of meteorological data as used to drive BEIS. The MEGAN simulations are still ongoing.
- Modeling Nr deposition: With consideration of projected changes in emissions (from both land-use-related and non-related sources) and meteorological changes under RCP8.5, we conducted CMAQ simulations for the years 2010, 2030, and 2050. To isolate the impact of future changes in land-use-related sources, we involved counterfactual simulations with the land-use-related emissions held constant. Based on this set of simulations, we evaluated the changes in the spatial patterns of Nr deposition over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and the impacts of land-use-related sources on Nr deposition. Specifically, we looked at the spatial change in Nr deposition amount as well as the species profile. A brute-force sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effect of reducing sulfate to Nr deposition pattern. The deposition change was analyzed in detailed in Class I sensitive regions, where the ecosystem is more vulnerable to excess Nr deposition.
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- Evaluation of future O3 in response to climate change and energy policy relaxation: This topic stems from the already-available climate projections and biogenic emissions that could have significant impacts on groundlevel O3. Focusing on climate change and recent energy policy relaxation, we conducted a set of CMAQ-HDDM simulations to evaluate their interactive impacts on O3-standard attainability over the CONUS.
- Evaluation of Critical Load (CL) exceedance under historical and future Nr deposition scenarios: We compared the simulated Nr deposition amount with multiple critical load (CL) datasets targeting protection of different biogeochemical and ecological endpoints. The CL data was obtained from the National Critical Loads Database (NCLD) for nitrogen and sulfur developed by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Specifically, we compared the deposition with surface water CL for acidity, forest soil CL for acidity, and empirical CL for nitrogen on ecoregion I level. For surface water and forest soil CL, the data was mapped onto the 36 km by 36 km grids in our study. The average and 10th percentile values were used for comparison, representing moderate and protective criterions, respectively. For empirical CL, we used CL for lichen because the community composition change in lichen is a sensitive bioindicator of Nr level in terrestrial ecosystems.
- Optimization of ammonia emission inventory using multiple observations and CMAQ-adjoint model: This study stems from the fact that bottom-up NH3 emission inventories are bounded with large uncertainty, and the estimates vary widely among different inventories, both spatially and temporally. We used the top-down approach to provide additional constrains to NH3 emission inventory. Four dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) method was adopted to optimize the emission estimation. A cost function was designed as a function of the emission scaling factor to penalize two aspects of mismatch (i) the deviation of adjusted emissions from the prior emission estimates, (ii) the difference between simulated and observed metrics. We employed the CMAQ-adjoint model to calculate the sensitivity of the defined cost function to the emissions and sought the optimized scaling factor by iteration. NH3 column density observed from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite and NH4+ wet deposition measured by the National Trends Network (NTN) were assimilated. The IASINH3 product provides better spatial coverage with higher uncertainty, while spatially scattered NH4+ wet deposition measurements provide more reliable information. The NH3 emissions are expected to be better constrained by combining these two datasets.
- SPARROW performance evaluation for 2010 base year and application to future projections. SPARROW model simulation was conducted using 2010 data, including air deposition data from CMAQ. SPARROW model outputs include total nitrogen loading, total nitrogen delivery yield, major source of total nitrogen (including air deposition as one of the ten sources) for 68,000 Enhanced River Reach File 2.0 (E2RF1) watersheds. The model performance was evaluated through the comparison of total nitrogen loading to the Chesapeake Bay between SPARROW output and estimated data from USGS. We then use SPARROW to simulate total nitrogen loading for 2030 and 2050 under various energy policy, climate, and population growth scenarios for the Chesapeake Bay as well as coastal and inland regions of the US. We conducted further analysis using Chesapeake Bay as an example.
- Evaluation of stream chemistry under different future scenarios. PnET-BGC simulations was conducted to evaluate the responses of stream water chemistry to the future changes in atmospheric deposition and meteorological conditions in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the Adirondack region of New York in eastern US. The future atmospheric deposition scenarios were developed by using CMAQ model simulations of future (2030 and 2050) scenarios with and without considering land use-related emission changes in various sectors (agriculture, biogenic and forest fire emissions). The future climate scenarios (Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were extracted from our downscaled meteorological fields as well as from MACA. Model simulations was used to examine the effects of changing climate and land use-related emission on recovery of stream waters from historical acidic deposition.
Future Activities:
- Regarding agricultural land NH3 emissions, conduct cost-effective analysis of management practices and mitigation measures adaptive to climate change.
- Compare the results of MEGAN and BEIS in their performance of the biogenic emission changes under climate change.
- Develop optimal nutrient water quality management strategies taking into account of the spatial distribution effects.
- Evaluate the difference in responses of stream and soil chemistry between acidic sensitive and insensitive sites to the change in climate and deposition conditions (derived from changing land use-related emission).
- Conduct the detailed sensitive analysis on stream ANC and nitrate by varying 16 PnET-BGC model input parameters.
- Continue to analyze data, prepare manuscripts, and present results at meetings.
Journal Articles on this Report : 2 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 27 publications | 19 publications in selected types | All 19 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Henneman LRF, Shen H, Liu C, Hu Y, Mulholland JA, Russell AG. Responses in ozone and its production efficiency attributable to recent and future emissions changes in the Eastern United States. Environmental Science & Technology 2017;51(23):13797-13805. |
R835880 (2016) R835880 (2017) R835880 (2018) R835880 (Final) |
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Lawal AS, Guan X, Liu C, Henneman LRF, Vasilakos P, Bhogineni V, Weber RJ, Nenes A, Russell AG. Linked response of aerosol acidity and ammonia to SO2 and NOX emissions reductions in the United States. Environmental Science & Technology 2018;52(17):9861-9873. |
R835880 (2017) R835880 (2018) R835880 (Final) R835882 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Nr species, PM2.5, land use change, pollutants emissions, air and water qualityProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.