Grantee Research Project Results
2019 Progress Report: Wildfires in the Rocky Mountains Region: Current and Future Impacts on PM2.5, Health, and Policy
EPA Grant Number: R835869Title: Wildfires in the Rocky Mountains Region: Current and Future Impacts on PM2.5, Health, and Policy
Investigators: Liu, Yang , Strickland, Matthew J , Chang, Howard , Fu, Joshua , Liu, Yongqiang
Institution: Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University , University of Nevada - Reno , University of Tennessee , U.S. Forest Service
EPA Project Officer: Keating, Terry
Project Period: January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2018 (Extended to December 31, 2020)
Project Period Covered by this Report: January 1, 2019 through December 31,2019
Project Amount: $786,089
RFA: Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World (2014) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air , Climate Change , Air Quality and Air Toxics
Objective:
In recent decades, the western United States has seen heightened wildfire activity, characterized by a higher frequency of large wildfires, a longer fire season, larger fire size, and a greater total area burned. With projected temperature increases, soil moisture reduction, and more frequent air stagnation, the burden of wildfires on air quality, public health, and environmental management will likely increase. With state-of-the-art global climate, regional climate, and air quality models; ground and satellite measurements; and detailed health information, we propose to investigate the impacts of historical and future wildfires on air quality, public health, and environmental management in the Rocky Mountains Region under various climate change scenarios and population growth patterns.
Progress Summary:
The modeling data generated for the Colorado 2011-2014 wildfire seasons was used to estimate human exposure to smoke specific PM2.5 for the same period. Using statewide health data for emergency department visits and hospitalizations (ED) during the study period, we explored the potential associations between smoke PM2.5 exposure and both cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. Health data was collected on a 4km grid to protect patient privacy. Exposure data was aggregated from 1km resolution to 4km and matched to health data for analysis. Per 1 µg/m3 increase in fire smoke PM2.5, significant associations were observed for asthma (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.081 (1.058, 1.105)) and combined respiratory disease (OR=1.021 (1.012, 1.031)). No significant positive associations were observed for cardiovascular outcomes. Some effect modification was evident when stratified by age, especially for asthma, bronchitis, and COPD outcomes. Notably, no significant positive associations were seen in older adult populations (65+) with respiratory health outcomes. These results point to potential higher toxicity in wildfire smoke PM2.5 compared to ambient PM2.5. This is especially true when looking at asthma outcomes alone, where OR values are much higher than those previously shown for ambient PM2.5 exposure. This work was accepted and published by the Environment International journal during this reporting period.
Modeling simulations for predicting future wildfire PM2.5 have been completed and analyzed for the entire western United States (WUS). Using the fire-related PM2.5 from these simulations, change in concentrations were calculated from 2003-2010 to 2050-2059. This change was used to estimate the excess number of emergency department visits and hospitalizations due to asthma that may be attributed to increasing wildfire activity in the region. In an average fire season during the 2050s, the region can expect an additional 155,181 asthma ED visits related to fire smoke PM2.5 exposure. This represents an increase of 15 visits per 10,000 persons across the region. States with the highest burdens include Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington where rates of increase range from 26 to 42 visits per 10,000 persons. These results will be used in an economic analysis to estimate the future monetary burden placed on the health system due to increases in wildfire activity. A combination of the health impact and economic impact analyses will be synthesized in a manuscript and submitted for publication during the upcoming reporting year.
Since the RCP8.5 emissions from IIASA had the spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, we developed a new fire emission dataset where large fire events took place at explicit locations during the present years. The new fire emission dataset was obtained from an empirical fire model based on the extreme value theory. Through this fire model, we simulated wildfires and the related PM2.5 emissions in WUS for 2001–2010 and projected for 2050–2059. The weather factors for fire prediction are a fire danger index at various abnormal levels and air humidity conditions corresponding to these levels. The model was developed for each of several fire size ranges. The data used to develop the fire model were historical fire and weather. The climate data for simulating and projecting fire were from dynamical regional climate downscaling. The properties used to estimate fire emission included projected fires, fuel loading, and fuel moisture. The fire model results were presented at the 6th International Fire Behavior and Fuel Conference. We replaced two emission sectors related to wildfires from IIASA with this new fire model emission dataset, while utilizing the same IIASA emissions for the other ten sectors, and conducted CMAQ simulations for the future years. The simulation results showed that wildfires would have smaller contributions in WUS, with a maximum change of 36 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 1.8 ppb for O3, respectively. Comparisons between cases with and without fire emissions during the present and future years were presented at the 18th Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System Conference.
Future Activities:
The final activities of this project will include (1) finalize the estimation of the impacts of future wildfires and urban pollution on air quality, population health, and public health decision making in the Rocky Mountains Region, (2) estimate the economic burden of future wildfires and urban air pollution on population health, and (3) submit health impact assessment results as a manuscript for publication. We will also wrap up the downscaled model result analysis and submit manuscripts for journal publications.
Journal Articles on this Report : 1 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
Other project views: | All 24 publications | 14 publications in selected types | All 14 journal articles |
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Type | Citation | ||
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Stowell, J.D., Geng, G., Saikawa, E., Chang, H.H., Fu, J., Yang, C.-E., Zhu, Q., Liu, Y., and Strickland, M.J. (2019). Associations of wildfire smoke PM2.5 exposure with cardiorespiratory events in Colorado 2011–2014. Environment International 133, 105151. |
R835869 (2019) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Particulate Matter, PM2.5, Wildfires, CESM, WRF-CMAQ, dynamical downscalingProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.