Grantee Research Project Results
Regional Vulnerability of Forest Resources to Current and Projected Environmental Stresses in the Southeastern U.S.
EPA Grant Number: R828785Title: Regional Vulnerability of Forest Resources to Current and Projected Environmental Stresses in the Southeastern U.S.
Investigators: Abt, Robert
Current Investigators: Abt, Robert , Myers, Jennifer Moore , Sommer, Allan , Murray, Brian , Bunch, Corey , Yang, Jui-Chen , Beach, Robert , Ahn, SoEun , McNulty, Steve , Pattanayak, Subhrendu
Institution: North Carolina State University
Current Institution: North Carolina State University , Desert Research Institute , USDA
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: March 19, 2001 through March 18, 2003 (Extended to March 18, 2004)
Project Amount: $399,365
RFA: Futures Research in Socio-Economics (2001) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Environmental Justice
Description:
The objectives of the proposed research are to: (1) Determine the effects of ozone, nitrogen deposition, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, and climate change, singly and in combination, on forest resources in the southeastern United States, (2) Develop an integrated modeling framework which links, climate, biological, and economic process models; (3) Complete an integrated ecological risk assessment of the biological and economic effects of chemical and physical environmental stressors and land-use change on the forest resources in the 13 southeastern U.S. states; and (4) Develop a regional vulnerability assessment report focused on identifying and prioritizing the role of environmental stresses, climate change, and forest market responses in impacting forest systems and the goods and services they provide to the American public.
Approach:
This research project will identify, quantify, and prioritize the impacts of environmental stresses, climate change, and socio-economics factors on forest resources using an integrated biological, climate, and economic modeling system. The focus of the approach is to link proven models of different spatial and temporal scales to better model environmental and climate stress impacts at the regional scale. The approach includes: (1) Spatially characterize environmental and climatic stresses to forest ecosystems at the regional scale for current and future (2100) conditions, (2) Synthesize existing forest response experimental data for environmental and climatic stresses for the southeastern U.S., (3) Develop regional and subregional forest sector responses to changes in the chemical and physical environment and land-use change using a linked forest productivity model (PnET-II) and a species diversity model (Zelig), (4) Simulate regional and subregional forest and land markets using the Subregional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) linked to the biological process models, (5) Assess the change in forest sustainability and forest sector goods and services across the region with current and future environmental and climatic stresses, and (6) Communicate spatially explicit resource data, environmental and climatic characterization data, modeling tools, and research findings to regional administrators and the American public.
Expected Results:
The proposed research will result in a regional and subregional vulnerability assessment; GIS regional data layers and tabular information of ozone concentrations, nitrogen deposition, soils, forest cover, climate, and demographics; and an integrated modeling tool to provide estimates of the effects of ozone, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land-use change on forest productivity, species diversity, timber value, timber harvest, and land-use change across the 13 southern states.
Publications and Presentations:
Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 17 publications for this projectJournal Articles:
Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 9 journal articles for this projectSupplemental Keywords:
climate change; forest ecosystems; ecological process models; economic models; ecological risk assessment; land-use change., RFA, Scientific Discipline, Economic, Social, & Behavioral Science Research Program, Air, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Ecosystem Protection, climate change, Economics, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Risk Assessment, decision-making, Economics & Decision Making, Ecological Indicators, anthropogenic stress, ecological exposure, environmental monitoring, meteorology, carbon emissions, climate change impact, ozone, climate studies, forest ecosystems, socioeconomic indicators, socioeconomics, forest reources, economic models, carbon dioxide, land use change, environmental stressors, changing environmental conditions, landscape characterization, regional scale model, forest resources, forest productivity model, ecological models, climate variability, climatic models, integrated ecological economic modelProgress and Final Reports:
The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.