Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. This newest version includes updated population and land use data sets and addresses limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide (Final Report) describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models.

Background

ICLUS V1 was built based on modeled population, residential development, and impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100 consistent with four global carbon emissions storylines and a baseline. This newest report discusses improvements to the underlying models of ICLUS that result in V2. ICLUS v2 is consistent with updated global socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and new global climate change model targets (e.g., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)).

Improvements include the use of updated population and land use/cover data sets, integration of changing climate variables within the migration model, inclusion of transportation network capacity and its increase over time, growth in commercial and industrial land uses, and the use of population density-driven demands for growth of residential housing, commercial development, and industry.

In addition, the companion report demonstrates the effect of these improvements by comparing national and regional results among the SSP and RCP combinations used and the two climate models selected. ICLUS v2 shows differences in population migration patterns by including climate variables that change over time rather than ones that are static. Additionally, changing commercial and industrial land uses can drive patterns of new urban growth that have consequences for many environmental endpoints.

Citation

U.S. EPA. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-16/366F, 2017.

History/Chronology

Aug 2014EPA conducted an internal review.
Apr 2016EPA released the draft report for public review and comment.
Sep 2016EPA released the ICLUS v2 datasets and population graphs and spreadsheet. This update included a change to the National Climate Assessments regional delineations as well.
Dec 2016EPA released the developed land use data for ICLUS v2.
Jan 2017EPA released the final report.