A Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Assessing Climate Induced Changes in Coastal Final Ecosystem Goods and Services
Citation:
Littles, C., Ted DeWitt, M. Harwell, AND C. Jackson. A Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Assessing Climate Induced Changes in Coastal Final Ecosystem Goods and Services. A Community on Ecosystem Services, Jacksonville, FL, December 05 - 09, 2016.
Impact/Purpose:
EPA scientists at ORD/NHEERL have developed a framework for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS) to climate change. Understanding how climate change will alter the availability of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS; such as food provisioning from fisheries, property protection, and recreation) has significant implications for coastal planning and the development of adaptive management strategies to maximize sustainability of natural resources. The dynamic social and physical settings of these important resources means that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” model to predict the specific changes in coastal FEGS that will occur as a result of climate change. Thus, the framework EPA has developed is a hypothesis-driven approach that builds on available literature to understand the likely effects of climate change on FEGS across coastal regions of the United States. In this first presentation of the framework, the scientists analyze the effects of four climate-related stressors (sea level rise, ocean acidification, increased temperature, and storm intensification) on three FEGS (food provisioning from fisheries, recreation, and property protection). The goal of this work is to transform the framework into a tool for coastal community stakeholders to proactively plan for climate-driven changes in FEGS. This research was conducted as a part of SHC Project 2.61, Task 3: Ecological Production Functions for Quantifying Final Ecosystem Goods and Services.
Description:
Understanding how climate change will alter the availability of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS; such as food provisioning from fisheries, property protection, and recreation) has significant implications for coastal planning and the development of adaptive management strategies to maximize sustainability of natural resources. The dynamic social and physical settings of these important resources means that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” model to predict the specific changes in coastal FEGS that will occur as a result of climate change. Instead, we propose a hypothesis-driven approach that builds on available literature to understand the likely effects of climate change on FEGS across coastal regions of the United States. We present an analysis for three FEGS: food provisioning from fisheries, recreation, and property protection. Hypotheses were restricted to changes precipitated by four prominent climate stressors projected in coastal areas: 1) sea-level rise, 2) ocean acidification, 3) increased temperatures, and 4) intensification of coastal storms. Our approach identified links between these stressors and the ecological processes that produce the FEGS, with the capacity to incorporate regional differences in FEGS availability. Linkages were first presented in a logic model to conceptualize the framework. For each region, we developed hypotheses regarding the effects of climate stressors on FEGS by examining case studies For example, we hypothesized that sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico may increase the availability of flooded marsh habitat accessible to fish and shellfish and increase the abundance of food provisioning FEGS in that area over the short-term. However, our analysis suggested that food provisioning in the Gulf of Mexico would decline over the long term if marsh habitat is eliminated due to accelerating sea level rise. Lastly, we analyzed factors that could increase the resilience of FEGS in a particular location. We found that, higher species diversity in the catch portfolio will likely improve the sustainability of commercial fishing compared to regions that rely on fewer species for their fishery. We present our framework as a tool for coastal community stakeholders to proactively plan for climate-driven changes in FEGS.