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Probabilities of Temperature Extremes in the U.S.
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Description:
The model Temperature Extremes Version 1.0 provides the capability to estimate the probability, for 332 locations in the 50 U.S. states, that an extreme temperature will occur for one or more consecutive days and/or for any number of days in a given month or season, based on statistics from the observed climate. It also provides the capability to examine how the probabilities might change given a monthly forecast of above or below normal temperatures or even to examine climate change scenarios. This can be done by modifying the normal statistics through adjustment of any or all four statistics that describe the daily temperatures. The model estimates the scenario probabilities as well. Normal and scenario probabilities are shown as graphs for both consecutive days and any days. Scenario adjustments can be user supplied or calculated from climate model (GFDL, UKMO) projections.
The model is a Windows-based application that requires 9-22 MB available hard disk space. The Getting Started menu provides an example. The Background section under Help topics includes: Global Warming Q & A, Model Descriptions, and a discussion of Extreme Temperature Probabilities.