Citation:

Smith, E R. LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE OF A REGION. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2004, Washington, DC, June 1-3, 2004.

Impact/Purpose:

Provide regional-scale, spatially explicit information on the extent and distribution of both stressors and sensitive resources.

Develop and evaluate techniques to integrate information on exposure and effects so that relative risk can be assessed and management actions can be prioritized.

Predict consequences of potential environmental changes under alternative future scenarios.

Effectively communicate economic and quality of life trade-offs associated with alternative environmental policies.

Develop techniques to prioritize areas for ecological restoration.

Identify information gaps and recommend actions to improve monitoring and focus research.

There are two task objectives that reflect the work done by LCB in support of the ReVA Program objectives:

Provide information management, spatial analysis support, and data and information accessibility for the ReVA Program

Provide program management support, technology transfer, and outreach.

Description:

The U .S. EP A's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program addresses the latter phases of an integrated ecological risk assessment (U .S. EP A 1998) by building on available monitoring data, focusing on synthesizing information on spatial patterns, analyzing and displaying current and future condition to allow comparison and prioritization of risk. In this session we will explore several futures models and their associated output for the Mid-Atlantic (Region 3). ReVA projects future conditions resulting from the 5 major drivers of change (land use change, change in pollution and pollutants, spread of non-indigenous species, resource extraction and climate change), and looks at risk management options by comparing alternative future management scenarios. We will demonstrate a regional population-based land use change model, that incorporates plans for future roads/highways, road improvements, new development! industrial centers and areas where mines have been permitted, but don't yet exist. Since land use change can affect ground water the second model demonstrates a method for determining the probability of exceeding nitrate standards within the region. The last two models to be presented will show how regional changes could alter migration patterns of neo-tropical birds and the changes which could occur in the spread of non-indigenous species both with and without climate change. The output from each of these models is synthesized in a regional futures assessment for 2020. These results, along with projected impacts from management options, are incorporated into a web-based environmental decision toolkit (EDT) that can help managers evaluate risks and target management options.

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