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A PROBABALISTIC ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE ECOLOGICAL RISK DRIVERS, 10TH VOLUME ASTM STP 1403
Citation:
Johnston, R. K., W R. Munns Jr., AND D E. Nacci. A PROBABALISTIC ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE ECOLOGICAL RISK DRIVERS, 10TH VOLUME ASTM STP 1403. BM Greenberg, RN Hull, MH Roberts Jr, and RW Gensemer (ed.), Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Science, Policy, and Standardization - Implications for Environmental Decisions. American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, , 68-82, (2001).
Description:
A probabilistic analysis of exposure and effect data was used to identify chemicals most likely responsible for ecological risk. The mean and standard deviation of the natural log-transformed chemical data were used to estimate the probability of exposure for an area of concern and a reference area. Benchmarks of chemical effects were selected from criteria, standards, and toxicological thresholds in the literature and dose-response models developed for Pb were used to estimate the probability of an effect from Pb. Ecological risk, defined as the probability of exceeding a benchmark or causing an effect given the probability of exposure was calculated for the area of concern and reference area. The probability of an effect from Pb and probability of exceeding any combination of benchmarks were determined by Monte Carlo simulations. Chemicals that caused an incremental increase of risk 0.05 above the reference area were identified as potential "risk drivers."