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A METHODOLOGY FOR INFERRING THE CAUSES OF OBSERVED IMPAIRMENTS IN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
Citation:
Suter, G, S B. Norton, AND S M. Cormier. A METHODOLOGY FOR INFERRING THE CAUSES OF OBSERVED IMPAIRMENTS IN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY 21(6):1101-1111, (2002).
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this research project is to provide methods, tools and guidance to Regions, States and Tribes to support the TMDL program. This research will investigate new measurement methods and models to link stressors to biological responses and will use existing data and knowledge to develop strategies to determine the causes of biological impairment in rivers and streams. Research will be performed across multiple spatial scales, site, subwatershed, watershed, basin, ecoregion and regional/state.
Description:
Biological surveys have become a common technique for determining whether aquatic communities have been injured. However, their results are not useful for identifying management options until the causes of apparent injuries have been identified. Techniques for determining causation have been largely informal and ad hoc. This paper presents a logical system for causal inference. It begins by analyzing the available information to generate causal evidence; available information may include spatial or temporal associations of potential cause and effect, field or laboratory experimental results, and diagnostic evidence from the affected organisms. It then uses a series of three alternative methods to infer the cause: elimination of causes, diagnostic protocols, and analysis of the strength of evidence. If the cause cannot be identified with sufficient confidence, the reality of the effects is examined, and if the effects are determined to be real, more information is obtained to reiterate the process.