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CART DIAGNOSIS OF WATERSHED IMPAIRMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Citation:
Neale, A C. AND K B. Jones. CART DIAGNOSIS OF WATERSHED IMPAIRMENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. Presented at Science Forum 2003, Washington, DC, May 5-7, 2003.
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objectives of this research are to:
Develop methodologies so that landscape indicator values generated from different sensors on different dates (but in the same areas) are comparable; differences in metric values result from landscape changes and not differences in the sensors;
Quantify relationships between landscape metrics generated from wall-to-wall spatial data and (1) specific parameters related to water resource conditions in different environmental settings across the US, including but not limited to nutrients, sediment, and benthic communities, and (2) multi-species habitat suitability;
Develop and validate multivariate models based on quantification studies;
Develop GIS/model assessment protocols and tools to characterize risk of nutrient and sediment TMDL exceedence;
Complete an initial draft (potentially web based) of a national landscape condition assessment.
This research directly supports long-term goals established in ORDs multiyear plans related to GPRA Goal 2 (Water) and GPRA Goal 4 (Healthy Communities and Ecosystems), although funding for this task comes from Goal 4. Relative to the GRPA Goal 2 multiyear plan, this research is intended to "provide tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic systems and the sources of associated stressors." Relative to the Goal 4 Multiyear Plan this research is intended to (1) provide states and tribes with an ability to assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically defensible and representative way, while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales, (2) assist Federal, State and Local managers in diagnosing the probable cause and forecasting future conditions in a scientifically defensible manner to protect and restore ecosystems, and (3) provide Federal, State and Local managers with a scientifically defensible way to assess current and future ecological conditions, and probable causes of impairments, and a way to evaluate alternative future management scenarios.
Description:
Many factors ( stressors ) can lead to increased concentrations of nutrients and sediments, and these factors change across watersheds. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) is a statistical approach that can be used to "diagnose" which factors are important stressors on a per watershed basis. CART uses recursive partitioning to separate observations into groups. Numerous data sets were compiled for 477 watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region, including land cover, atmospheric deposition, hydrogpraphy, topography, and soils, along with nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads. Results from the CART analysis identified 8 distinct groups of watersheds based on differences in the amount of atmospheric deposition, abundance of riparian land cover, abundance of forest land cover, and other factors.