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NORTHWEST OREGON PILOT STUDY AREA (USA): A WATERSHED ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND IMPACTS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES
Citation:
Kepner, W G., D J. Semmens, D T. Heggem, AND D. C. Goodrich. NORTHWEST OREGON PILOT STUDY AREA (USA): A WATERSHED ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND IMPACTS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES. Presented at NATO/CCMS Pilot Study Workshop: Use of landscape Sciences for Environmental Assessment, Debe, Poland, September 1-3, 2003.
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objectives of this research are to:
Develop methodologies so that landscape indicator values generated from different sensors on different dates (but in the same areas) are comparable; differences in metric values result from landscape changes and not differences in the sensors;
Quantify relationships between landscape metrics generated from wall-to-wall spatial data and (1) specific parameters related to water resource conditions in different environmental settings across the US, including but not limited to nutrients, sediment, and benthic communities, and (2) multi-species habitat suitability;
Develop and validate multivariate models based on quantification studies;
Develop GIS/model assessment protocols and tools to characterize risk of nutrient and sediment TMDL exceedence;
Complete an initial draft (potentially web based) of a national landscape condition assessment.
This research directly supports long-term goals established in ORDs multiyear plans related to GPRA Goal 2 (Water) and GPRA Goal 4 (Healthy Communities and Ecosystems), although funding for this task comes from Goal 4. Relative to the GRPA Goal 2 multiyear plan, this research is intended to "provide tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic systems and the sources of associated stressors." Relative to the Goal 4 Multiyear Plan this research is intended to (1) provide states and tribes with an ability to assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically defensible and representative way, while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales, (2) assist Federal, State and Local managers in diagnosing the probable cause and forecasting future conditions in a scientifically defensible manner to protect and restore ecosystems, and (3) provide Federal, State and Local managers with a scientifically defensible way to assess current and future ecological conditions, and probable causes of impairments, and a way to evaluate alternative future management scenarios.
Description:
Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The Northwest Oregon Pilot Study Area encompasses approximately 59,167 km2 and comprises a mixture of federal, state, and privately owned lands that include estuarine, forest, and rangeland habitat interspersed with rural and metropolitan centers and agricultural areas. The pilot area supports 2.6 million inhabitants and is expected to undergo major changes relative to human development patterns and preferences over the next fifty years. In the present pilot study, future options were examined relative to their impact on surface water conditions, e.g. surface runoff and sediment yield. These hydrological outputs were estimated for a baseline year and predicted in the future using hydrological process models and spatially oriented land use models based on stakeholder preferences and historical growth.