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EMERGING PATHOGENS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN: UNIQUE CHALLENGES FOR QUANTITATIVE MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Citation:
Cicmanec*, J L. EMERGING PATHOGENS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN: UNIQUE CHALLENGES FOR QUANTITATIVE MICROBIAL RISK ASSESSMENT. Presented at Society for Risk Analysis, Seattle, WA, 12/3-5/2001.
Description:
Recently severe human epidemics caused by waterborne Cryptosporidium parvum and Escherichia coli Strain (157:H7 of animal origin have attracted much attention in the national news media. Among the 130 diseases that can be transmitted to man from domestic and wild animals, a significant number can occur in an environmental setting and these diseases often invollve unusual characteristics of vector transmission or altered microbial replication such as hantavirus in NM, West Nile virus in NY and NJ, and elk chronic wasting disease in the Rocky Mountains. At some point the public will expect scientists to make predictons regarding the likely transmission to humans for this category of diseases and a listing of the possible risk factors that significantly influence interspecies disease transmission. Virulence traits of E. coli Strain 0157:H7 as well as survival in cattle feces and soil will hve significant impact upon a quantitative risk assessment of this organism and seasonal rainfall amounts and increases in the reservoir host, the white-footed deer mouse, (Peromyscus leucopus) likewise will be important for hantavirus. Population increases for four species of fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) in Australia greatly affect the occurrence of equine paramyxovirus and changes in the wildlife reservoir host for rabies influence possible human exposure in the US. A summary of the potential quantitative impact of these factors for additional pathogens will be presented. This paper does not reflect current EPA policy.