Impact/Purpose:

The distribution and patterns of exposure of ecosystems to stressors over the next 50 years required within the Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA) will be dependent on patterns of human activities that are likely to occur over this period. Although human activity and culture are the driving force currently altering the ecological landscape, surprisingly little effort has been devoted to integrating socioeconomic data and projections into environmental and ecological impact assessments. The most dramatic land use change is the conversion of agricultural and forested use to a developed use (residential/commercial). A rapidly-growing population and sprawling, low-density development patterns are consuming large quantities of land. This project is developing methods to analyze potential land use changes that result from changes in human population growth, economic conditions, public works, and public policy decisions. The focus is on developing methods that are appropriate for a region-wide assessment scale. The assessment question addressed is "how much, where, and what kind of land use change will affect ecological resources in a region over the next 25 to 50 years."

Description:

Land use change is arguably the primary driver that will impact ecological resources in the U.S. during the next 50 years. This task is developing methods to analyze potential land use changes that result from changes in human population growth, economics, public works, and as a consequence of public policy decisions. Methods to identify the probable geographic location of development and infrastructure are being generated. In addition, the relationships between land use conversion and the environmental impacts of the land use change will be explored. The Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) region is the geographic focus for this project, but the developed methodology will be transferrable to other regions. The project relies on data bases developed within the ReVA-MAIA program. A unique feature of the project is its attempt to use approaches and data generated from a variety of disciplinary perspectives - land use planning, resource management, demographics, and remote sensing - to generate these landscape change algorithms.

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT

Completion Date:09/30/2001

OMB Category:Other

Record ID: 56167

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Project Information:

Progress :The research has closely followed the objectives that were included in the original internal grant proposal . The initial analysis is focusing on six Maryland counties (Queen Anne's, Frederic, Harford, Washington, Anne Arundel, and Calvert). A number of data layers has been obtained and put into the standard ReVA-MAIA projections for each of these counties, including MdProperty View data (incorporates MD State Department of Assessments and Taxation property records), block (total population and household density) and blockgroup (educational status, population composition, housing characteristics) level 1990 Census data, physiographic data (streams, land cover, elevation, soils, major water bodies), roadways, railways, Federal lands, state parks and recreation areas, golf courses and schools. These data will be used both in an analysis of land use and land cover relationships as well as in the calibration of a development suitability index model. Data for six additional counties will be used for an independent method evaluation. Major data sources (census, MRLC, road and railways) being used are from the late 80's or early 90's. MdPropertyView includes construction through 1998, providing data to analyze what features on the landscape explain the subsequent development.

A literature review of locational factors affecting development was completed in the initial quarter of the project. In the course of this review, 30+ factors to consider for incorporation into a suitability index model were identified. Two counties (Frederick and Queen Anne's, MD) are being used to screen the usefulness of these factors, develop feasible metrics for them, and develop the appropriate structure for index values. A preliminary assessment of the impact of several factors on recent construction (1991-1998), including distance to major roads, proximity to any paved roads, proximity to major water bodies, socio-economic status index, % sewer connections, current and neighboring land cover, slope, and median year built has been completed for the two initial development counties. Additional factors that will be investigated include: distance to major intersections, railroads, land fills, elementary schools, and shopping areas; inside or outside of city limits, block level population density, soil characteristics, and access to major employment centers. We have data in-house to support some representation of each of these factors. A travel time (service area) coverage to the central business district of each major metropolitan area is being developed using Network Analyst and estimates of speeds based on Tiger file road type classification and state speed limits by road type.

A prototype for the suitability index model has been developed in an ArcView Avenue framework. At present, only four factors are included but this number is expanding as appropriate metrics are generated. The automated Windows-based format will allow more rapid testing of weighting factors and index structures, and also serve as the basis for a distributable desktop product at the end of the project.

Evaluation of land use and land cover relationships are being explored through analysis and comparisons of property records, block and block group level census data, and MRLC data. This analysis considers the appropriate resolution for utilizing each of these data sources as well as serving as a quality control on the data sources themselves. The original concept of this study was to use the MRLC as the base data for identifying developed land use. However, relationships must be developed to correct for low density development areas that are not identified within the landscape characterization data set.

Generally, the project is on target according to the time line included in the grant proposal with dates corrected for the 2/99 rather than the original 10/98 start date. The analysis of NALC and aerial photo analysis has not been initiated.This segment of the

Relevance :Land use is a primary driver in generating the exposure of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to a wide range of stressors including pesticides, sediments, nutrients, hydrologic response, and direct habitat destruction. Understanding the dynamics of land use change and the relationship between land use and land cover is essential to understand not only the potential landscape ecosystem impacts, but also to adequately estimate regional scale stressor exposure. The development of methods to aid in translating land cover imagery to actual pollutant/stressor loading and habitat disruption due to on the ground land use and its change could substantially reduce uncertainty in exposure assessments. A systematic methodology to project potential land use/land cover conversions is an essential component of vulnerability assessments and as a guide to understanding the potential effectiveness in proposed mitigation strategies. Understanding the potential for a shift in stressors distributions in a region will substantially increase the quality of our exposure and vulnerability assessments.

Clients :Region 3 and 4

Project IDs:

ID Code :5418

Project type :OMIS