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FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT MODELING IN SUPPORT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PROGRAM
Impact/Purpose:
The objective of this research is to develop a state-of-the-art observation and forecasting system for the marine and coastal environments of the Gulf of Mexico's adjoining rivers, bays, shelf and waters. An integral component of the modeling system is the development of chemical and non chemical loadings from runoff in near and upland watersheds. This research has two subtasks1) Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and 2) Development of real time predictive capability for environmental security assessments.
Subtask 1 Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico
Nutrients and sediments discharged into the Gulf of Mexico, largely from the Mississippi River Basin, are contributing to the formation of a zone of low dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) along the coast of Louisiana and Texas. The major vehicle for conducting an environmental assessment for the hypoxic zone is a modeling approach for characterizing and prioritizing sources of nutrient loadings initially within the Mississippi River basin.
To meet this objective, the following assessments/activities need to be developed: 1) determination of the relative nutrient contribution of all sources: atmospheric, nonpoint and point sources; 2) aggregation of the total nutrient loads to the receiving water body); 3) establishment of load/dose/response relationships.; 4) establish agreement of water quality criteria and biological targets for the Gulf; and 5) determination of total nutrient load targets that restore oxic conditions to the Gulf environment based upon model projections.
Subtask 2 Real time predictions for environmental security assessments.
Federal agencies and others have established programs for operational modeling and data collection in rivers, estuaries and coastal areas of the United States. These systems are designed to provide support for technological and natural disasters but are not sufficient to support the range of threats realized since the September 11th attacks primarily because of incomplete information about oceanographic conditions and restricted capability for modeling the transport and fate of certain pollution classes such as radiological agents.
To meet this goal, the following activities need to be developed: Identify exposure pathways, evaluate human health and ecological risks, develop remedial strategies for mitigation and provide for public outreach including dissemination of risk information and simulation results.
Description:
The primary purpose of this task is to serve as ORD liaison with USEPA's Gulf of Mexico Program Office. Liaison activities include 1) managing joint work between EPA and the US Navy; 2) serving as ORD lead for the RARE projects; 3) serving as a member of the State and Federal task forces for the Louisiana Coastal Assessment; 4) providing leadership for the TMDL support (Melanie MaGee is the EPA Region 4 lead); 5) serving as project officer for the Lake Ponchartrain cooperative agreement.
Two subtasks are a part of this task: 1) Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and 2) Development of Real Time Predictive Capability for Environmental Security Assessments.