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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD
Citation:
Bachelet, D., D. Brown, M. Bohm, AND P. Russell. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-92/326 (NTIS PB92232883), 1992.
Description:
Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this study, four general circulation model (GCM) predictions are overlaid and the composite used to derive climate change scenarios that will be used in the future in rice models to estimate potential future change in yield and other agronomically important variables. This approach provides a means to identify model uncertainties and provides error bars for the projections. eview of current climatic conditions in Thailand provides a simple test of the predictions validity. Predictions of climate change are also calculated for agroclimatic regions that have been documented in the literature. A general increase in temperature of about 2 Degrees C is proposed for the whole country and a greater increase for the Northwest Highlands region. Precipitation could decrease by 20% from December to March, but increase by the same amount during the rest of the year. Temperature changes are important for rice culture which, provides food and economic stability to the country. ncreased precipitation could mean greater flooding problems in the plains.