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IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANCE SCENARIOS ON SOIL EROSION POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES
Citation:
Phillips, D., D. White, AND C. Johnson. IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANCE SCENARIOS ON SOIL EROSION POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-93/346 (NTIS PB93229649), 1993.
Description:
Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMS) project that rising atmospheric concentrations of CO, and other greenhouse gases may result in lobal changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 50-100 years. quilibrium climate scenarios from 4 GCMs run under doubled CO2 conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous United States. hanges in the mean annual rainfall factor(R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland, and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. rojected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in ither storm frequency or storm intensity. ssuming all other USLE factors constant, the national average of sheet and rill erosion was projected to change to +2% to +16% in croplands, -2% to +10% in pasturelands, and -5% to +22% in rangelands under the 8 scenarios. and with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. he results varied from model to model, region to region, and depended on the assumption of frequency vs. intensity changes. hese results demonstrate the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential under projected climate change scenarios, but actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by alterations in cropping patterns and other management practices.