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STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Citation:
Robinson, P. AND P.L. Finkelstein. STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/3-90/026 (NTIS PB90192022).
Description:
In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. vailable techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultations with scenario development experts. echniques were divided into ten modules, groups of techniques with similar methodologies, input requirements and output formats. hree modules involve approaches which model atmospheric processes, four concern analysis of past climate records, and three concentrate on methods for linking the other two. Each module can provide a scientifically well-founded piece of needed information, and a series of modules used together will produce the scenario. ser needs were assessed in consultation with selected individuals who had experience in the use of scenarios. he major needs were revealed to be for general descriptive statistics of the major climatic elements, for information about climatic anomalies, notably drought, for statistics on the frequency and probability of events exceeding particular thresholds, and for general information about storminess. he results of the two sets of assessments are combined to provide a scenario development strategy. n iterative approach is recommended. Project areas incorporating both scenario development efforts and fundamental research are identified for the first three iterations.
