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The Integration of Climate Change into the Problem Formulation Stage of Ecological Risk Assessments and Future Implications
Citation:
Landis, W., J. Carriger, J. Hader, C. Mitchell, AND R. Nathan. The Integration of Climate Change into the Problem Formulation Stage of Ecological Risk Assessments and Future Implications. SETAC North America 43rd Annual Meeting/ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, November 13 - 17, 2022.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation provides an overview of incorporating climate change into the phases of a risk assessment through a case study on chinook salmon population viability in Eastern Washington. The work in this case study is the result of an international collaboration from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Pellston workshop on climate change risk assessment. This presentation will update the SETAC membership and conference audience on the results from this workshop and case study.
Description:
The problem formulation stage of an ecological risk assessment defines the scope of the analysis by delineating the ecosystems at risk, the characteristics of the stressors, the assessment and measurement endpoints, the exposure pathways between the stressor source and endpoints, and the risk hypotheses. It has become clear that the overarching effects due to global climate change can affect each of these components. Within the SETAC Pellston workshop on global climate change and ecological risk assessment, the integration of climate model projections into the prediction of near- and long-term risk was evaluated. A major impetus for this work is that climate change can affect ecological risks in multiple ways, including changing the use of chemical stressors such as pesticides, changing the use of a habitat by species of concern, and altering habitat quality. State-of-the-art global climate modelling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. However, it is also important to realize the limitations of individual climate models and evaluate the uncertainties associated with these models in conjunction with the uncertainties of the traditional risk assessment pathways. Completed risk assessments that utilized Bayesian networks and represent advances in the science for their applications, were drawn upon for better predicting future risks to ecosystems. The tools and considerations developed from this working group may be helpful for elucidating the multiple future challenges to ecosystems and for better managing risks from a changing climate.