Citation:

Vanderhoof, M., J. Christensen, L. Alexander, C. Lane, AND H. Golden. Climate Change Will Impact Surface Water Extents and Dynamics Across the Central United States. Earth’s Future. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, 12(2):e2023EF004106, (2024). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004106

Impact/Purpose:

Climate change by influencing both precipitation and temperature patterns will change surface water storage patterns of wetlands, lakes, streams and rivers and the ecosystem services aquatic resources provide. This study looked across a north-south gradient in the central US at 32 sites and quantified surface water dynamics using remotely sensed data and created climate models for each site. The climate models were then placed in two climate change scenarios which showed projected annual and seasonal declines in surface water for southern areas and projected increases in surface water for northern sites. Projected changes in surface water extents can inform future estimates of regional and national surface water storage, which can guide conservation and mitigation efforts as well as prepare for future flood and drought events 

Description:

Climate change is projected to impact river, lake, and wetland hydrology, with global implications for the condition and productivity of aquatic ecosystems. We integrated Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 based algorithms to track monthly surface water extent (2017–2021) for 32 sites across the central United States (U.S.). Median surface water extent was highly variable across sites, ranging from 3.9% to 45.1% of a site. To account for landscape-based differences (e.g., water storage capacity, land use) in the response of surface water extents to meteorological conditions, individual statistical models were developed for each site. Future changes to climate were defined as the difference between 2006–2025 and 2061–2080 using MACA-CMIP5 (MACAv2-METDATA) Global Circulation Models. Time series of climate change adjusted surface water extents were projected. Annually, 19 of the 32 sites under RCP4.5 and 22 of the 32 sites under RCP8.5 were projected to show an average decline in surface water extent, with drying most consistent across the southeast central, southwest central, and midwest central U.S. Projected declines under surface water dry conditions at these sites suggest greater impacts of drought events are likely in the future. Projected changes were seasonally variable, with the greatest decline in surface water extent expected in summer and fall seasons. In contrast, many north central sites showed a projected increase in surface water in most seasons, relative to the 2017–2021 period, likely attributable to projected increases in winter and spring precipitation exceeding increases in projected temperature.

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