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A spatially explicit model for estimating risks of pesticide exposure to bird populations (Manuscript)
Citation:
Etterson, M., N. Schumaker, K. Garber, S. Lennartz, A. Kanarek, AND J. Connolly. A spatially explicit model for estimating risks of pesticide exposure to bird populations (Manuscript). PLOS ONE . Public Library of Science, San Francisco, CA, 16(6):e0252545, (2021). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252545
Impact/Purpose:
This paper describes a linked series of USEPA models that can be used for avian population-level risk assessment. The work described represents an ongoing collaboration between ORD and OPP/EFED to increase the realism and relevance of pesticide risk assessment for birds, including federally listed populations and species under the Endangered Species Act. In it, the authors demonstrate how the three linked models (TIM, MCnest, and HexSim can be combined in a single workflow to produce a comprehensive spatially explicit risk assessment for two pesticides for a federally listed species, the California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica). The intended audience includes federal management agencies, especially USEPA, US Fish and Wildlife Service, and National Marine Fisheries Service as well as both the chemical risk assessment community and the avian modeling communities.
Description:
Pesticides are used widely in agriculture and have the potential to affect non-target organisms, including birds. We developed an integrated modeling system to allow for spatially-explicit evaluation of potential impacts to bird populations following exposures to pesticides. Our novel methodology builds upon three existing models: the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM), the Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (MCnest), and HexSim to simulate population dynamics. We parameterized the integrated modeling system using information required under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, together with species habitat and life history data available from the scientific literature as well as landcover data representing agricultural areas and species habitat. Our case study of the federally threatened California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica) illustrates how the integrated modeling system can estimate the population-scale consequences of pesticide applications. We simulated impacts from two insecticides applied to wheat: one causing mortality (survival stressor), and the other causing reproductive failure (reproductive stressor). We observed declines in simulated gnatcatcher abundance and changes in the species’ distribution following applications of each pesticide; however, the impacts of the two pesticides were different. Our methodology attempts to strike a balance between biological realism and model complexity and should be applicable to a wide array of species, systems, and stressors.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: A spatially explicit model for estimating risks of pesticide exposure to bird populations (Manuscript)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8221516/