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Machine-Learning Models of Mosquitofish Hg Concentrations in the Florida Everglades
Citation:
Cyterski, M., P. Kalla, Daniel Scheidt, AND J. Minucci. Machine-Learning Models of Mosquitofish Hg Concentrations in the Florida Everglades. US EPA 2023 National Fish Forum, Virtual, GA, February 28 - March 09, 2023.
Impact/Purpose:
Disseminate important research results to audience.
Description:
We present results of a multiyear study of the Everglades (Florida, USA) detailing how differences in environmental variables can alter mercury concentrations in the food web. About 1000 random locations throughout the freshwater Everglades marsh have been sampled for the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Everglades Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program ("REMAP") since 1995. REMAP sampling is synoptic and multimedia, including an abundant prey fish (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki) as an indicator of mercury bioaccumulation. Amplifying an approach we reported to Everglades National Park, we used Generalized Boosted Models on the REMAP data to estimate how much of the mercury concentration in mosquitofish could be explained by water quality constituents or indicators of ecological health (covariates). The resulting model accounts for 60% of the environmental influence on variation in mosquitofish mercury, a robust outcome for a large, disturbed ecosystem such as the Everglades, given its seasonal, annual, and spatial differences. Of the eight most influential covariates, two were methyl mercury in periphyton and water, two can be indicators of trophic state (alkaline phosphatase and chlorophyll-a), one can be a marker of stormwater transport (conductivity), and two can be enablers of mercury methylation (sulfate in soil and water). While these covariates had an average individual influence ranging from 4.0% to 10.1%, together they accounted for 52.2% of the total relative influence. Water with low phosphorus, but with sulfur and carbon above background, moved into the less disturbed parts of the Everglades via modifications to the existing water management system, could increase mercury bioaccumulation in those parts of the marsh.