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A Dynamic Modeling Approach to Estimate Nitrogen Loading in Coastal Bays on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA
Citation:
Balogh, S., K. Mulvaney, N. Merrill, AND A. Piscopo. A Dynamic Modeling Approach to Estimate Nitrogen Loading in Coastal Bays on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. WATER. MDPI, Basel, Switzerland, 14(10):1529, (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14101529
Impact/Purpose:
Towns on Cape Cod are considering various options to address nitrogen pollution in coastal waters in order to improve coastal water quality. We create a model of nitrogen flows over time for each watershed and estuary on the Cape. We explore the impact of travel delays on the amount of nitrogen entering the bay at a given time, and estimate the amount of nitrogen on its way to the bay. We find that given the current number of properties with septic systems on the Cape that four-fifths of the bays can expect more nitrogen to enter the bay in the future than presently. Nearly all bays would experience additional nitrogen loading under a scenario that included additional properties being developed on the Cape. We find that investments in wastewater treatment successfully reduces nitrogen loading, revealing that there are a wide range of possible outcomes that depend on the resources and attention paid to the problem.
Description:
Solving estuarine water quality problems on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, or elsewhere, is difficult. Nitrogen from septic systems takes years to decades to travel by groundwater to estuaries, depending on local hydrogeology, meaning that nitrogen loading in future years may exceed current conditions. We created a dynamic nitrogen model of Cape Cod’s 54 estuaries to better understand 1. how past and present conditions, including legacy nitrogen in groundwater, influence future nitrogen loading, and 2. how different development and nitrogen abatement scenarios could have additional effects. We find that 43 of 54 estuaries are not in equilibrium with current watershed nitrogen loading levels; this increases to 52 of 54 under a buildout scenario. Watersheds contain up to 1000 tons of legacy nitrogen in groundwater; yet, we find that a rapid investment in source control successfully reduces nitrogen loading, revealing a wide range of potential outcomes that depend ultimately on the resources and attention invested in the problem.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: A Dynamic Modeling Approach to Estimate Nitrogen Loading in Coastal Bays on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/10/1529