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Representing Lines of Evidence for DNAPL Mobility and Remediation Effectiveness with Conceptual Bayesian Networks
Citation:
Carriger, John F., Michael C. Brooks, C. Acheson, AND R. Herrmann. Representing Lines of Evidence for DNAPL Mobility and Remediation Effectiveness with Conceptual Bayesian Networks. SETAC Europe 32nd Annual Meeting, Copenhagen, DENMARK, May 15 - 19, 2022.
Impact/Purpose:
This presentation explores the use of the structural (qualitative and graphical) aspects of Bayesian networks for conceptual site model lines of evidence. The prestentation demonstrates the potential use of conceptual models with Bayesian network structures through a groundwater offsite migration assessment of contaminants. The presntation is in poster format and will be presented virtually at SETAC Europe 2022 conference in a Bayesian network session with international presenters.
Description:
For contaminated sites, conceptual site models (CSMs) guide the assessment and management of risks, including remediation strategies. Their basic structure often consists of a source term for a chemical release into the environment, media through which chemicals migrate, and assessment endpoints for humans and ecological variables. Recent research has expanded on the diagrammatic aspects of CSMs with graph theory for causal modelling to develop what is nominally called conceptual Bayesian networks (CBNs). This presentation will explore the utility of CBNs for controlling and preventing offsite contaminant migration, particularly ones found for contaminated sites with dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). Remediation of contaminated DNAPL sites is a priority in the United States and globally due to the long-term risk to groundwater resources and off-site migration issues. Preventing the movement of DNAPL and other contaminants to sensitive receptors is important for supporting and evaluating remediation. A lines-of-evidence approach has become increasing common in groundwater DNAPL characterization and remediation due to the uncertain measurements used for site characterization. This presentation will further develop the theory of CBNs through qualitative representation of lines of evidence for supporting source term, onsite and offsite flux, and remediation effectiveness characterization. A lines of evidence approach for variables in a CSM that are not directly observable can provide rapid preliminary aid in evaluating the potential for influence of environmental measurements on a system model prior to quantification for risk assessment. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or the policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.