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Climate-Induced Invasions: Modeling Complex Responses and Non-native Fish Expansion in a Warming Stream Network
Citation:
Beebe, B., Joe Ebersole, A. Brookes, AND B. Rashleigh. Climate-Induced Invasions: Modeling Complex Responses and Non-native Fish Expansion in a Warming Stream Network. Joint Aquatic Sciences Meeting, Grand Rapids, MI, May 14 - 20, 2022.
Impact/Purpose:
Fish communities in river networks provide significant ecosystem services that will likely decline under future land use, human water demand, and climate change. We developed a model that simulates the consequences to multiple populations of one or more fish species – a metacommunity – from multiple stressors across a river network. The model is spatially-explicit and age-structured, with three components: habitat suitability; population dynamics, including species interactions; and movement across a spatial network. We apply the model to a fish assemblage in the Willamette River basin of Oregon, a region where human population and water demand are expected to grow substantially over the next 50 years. Although this model is simple, it can form the basis of fisheries assessments and may be incorporated into an integrated modeling system for watershed management and prediction
Description:
Whether through intentional or accidental dispersal, invasive species have had widespread effects on native community dynamics in freshwater ecosystems. Impending shifts in climate patterns may exacerbate the impact of these species on fish communities. For example, warming climate and thus warmer stream temperatures could increase the suitability of habitat in coldwater systems for warmwater species. This habitat suitability transformation will promote distribution expansions of invasive warmwater fishes, leading to shifts in community dynamics that could threaten native fish species. We developed a flexible fish community modeling framework, Simulating Metacommunities of Riverine Fishes (SMRF), to showcase how assemblage modeling can be used to evaluate changes in fish communities in response to warming stream temperatures. Our model integrates aspects of movement, habitat suitability, and species interactions to predict shifts in abundance, distribution, and community assemblage. We explore the details of these community and population dynamics in a small tributary of the Willamette River in western Oregon and discuss how species interactions play a role in determining which species are most successful.