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Developing integral projection models for ecotoxicology
Citation:
Pollesch, N., K. Flynn, S. Kadlec, J. Swintek, Sandy Raimondo, AND M. Etterson. Developing integral projection models for ecotoxicology. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 464:109813, (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109813
Impact/Purpose:
Population biologists, ecotoxicologists, and ecological risk assessors seek to understand the deleterious effects of changing environmental conditions and exposure to chemicals. Understanding exposure effects is imperative for wildlife and environmental protection, yet often takes place in a data-limited environment. Therefore, models are used to predict changes in wildlife population structure and growth trajectories. The modeling approach we present allows for the incorporation of effects on the common end points of growth, reproduction, and survival due to chemical and non-chemical stressors. We demonstrate how available data can be used to extrapolate to population level endpoints. Using the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) as a case study, our work shows how existing exposure and effect models can be linked to our IPM population model to estimate acute effects of chemical exposure on aquatic organism populations.
Description:
In many ecosystems, especially aquatic ecosystems, size plays a critical role in the factors that determine an individual's ability to survive and reproduce. In aquatic ecotoxicology, size informs both realized and potential acute and chronic effects of chemical exposure. This paper demonstrates how chemical and nonchemical effects on growth, survival, and reproduction can be linked to population-level dynamics using size-structured integral projection models (IPM). The modeling approach was developed with the goals and constraints of ecological risk assessors in mind, who are tasked with estimating the effects of chemical exposures to wildlife populations in a data-limited environment. The included case study is a collection of daily time-step IPMs parameterized for the life history and annual cycle of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), which motivated the development of modeling techniques for seasonal, iteroparous reproduction, density dependent growth effects, and size-dependent over-winter survival. The effects of a time-variable annual chemical exposure were interpreted using a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model for acute survival and sub-lethal growth effects model for chronic effects and incorporated into the IPMs. This paper presents a first application of integral projection models to ecotoxicology. Our research demonstrates that size-structured IPMs provide a promising, flexible, framework for synthesizing ecotoxicologically relevant data and theory to explore the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors and the resulting impacts on exposed populations.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: Developing integral projection models for ecotoxicology
DEVELOPING IPMS FOR ECOTOX - REVISED - POLLESCH ET AL.DOCX