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Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems
Citation:
Herrmann, D., K. Schwarz, C. Allen, D. Angeler, T. Eason, AND A. Garmestani. Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society. Resilience Alliance Publications, Waterloo, Canada, 26(4):8, (2021). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12706-260408
Impact/Purpose:
This study advances understanding of how to improve management of linked social-ecological systems, which has critical ramifications for improving environmental outcomes. This paper moves the research on environmental management forward by analyzing the issue, and providing guidance for moving forward. In the long-term, improving environmental management has broad-scale implications for the environment in the United States, with particular interest for Regions, communities and the general public.
Description:
Managing social-ecological systems toward desirable regimes requires learning about the system being managed while preparing for many possible futures. Adaptive management (AM) and scenario planning (SP) are two systems management approaches that separately use learning to reduce uncertainties and employ planning to manage irreducible uncertainties, respectively. However, each of these approaches have limitations that confound management of social-ecological systems. Here, we introduce iterative scenarios (IS), a systems management approach that is a hybrid of the scopes and relationships to uncertainty and controllability of AM and SP that combines the "iterativeness" of AM and futures planning of SP. Iterative scenarios is appropriate for situations with high uncertainty about whether a management action will lead to intended outcomes, the desired benefits are numerous and cross-scale, and it is difficult to account for the social implications around the natural resource management options. The value of iterative scenarios is demonstrated by applying the approach to green infrastructure futures for a neighborhood in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., that had experienced long-term, systemic disinvestment.
