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Modeled Impacts of Drinking Water Pb Reduction Scenarios on Children’s Exposures and Blood Lead Levels
Citation:
Stanek, L., J. Xue, C. Lay, E. Helm, T. Speth, D. Lytle, M. Schock, AND V. Zartarian. Modeled Impacts of Drinking Water Pb Reduction Scenarios on Children’s Exposures and Blood Lead Levels. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, 54(15):9474-9482, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00479
Impact/Purpose:
The purpose of this work was to use the ORD SHEDS-IEUBK modeling approach to predict population-level blood lead levels (BLLs) based on multimedia Pb exposure and varying inputs of water Pb concentration. Despite uncertainties in current drinking water Pb measurements, the results show that drinking water can be an important exposure pathway for total Pb exposure in children and infants. Over the range of input concentrations, representing plausible drinking water Pb exposures, the average contribution to BLLs from residential drinking water ranges from approximately 10-80%. This is higher than has generally been concluded in many papers. Significant decreases in children’s BLLs can result from Pb in drinking water reduction actions.
Description:
In recent years, environmental lead (Pb) exposure through drinking water has resulted in community public health concerns, particularly in children. To understand potential impacts on childhood blood Pb levels (BLLs) from various drinking water Pb reduction scenarios (i.e. lead service line removal and corrosion control treatment), EPA’s coupled Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS)-Multimedia/Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) modeling system was applied for national-scale analyses. Two separate approaches were used to estimate drinking water Pb concentrations for model inputs: one utilized sequential sampling data from field studies; the other a “bounding” dataset spanning a range of realistic mean water Pb concentrations and variabilities. For both approaches across the scenarios considered, average modeled contribution to BLLs from ingestion of residential drinking water ranged from ~10-80%, with the highest for formula-fed infants (age 0 to <1 year). Relative contributions to BLLs from various ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways were highly sensitive to drinking water Pb concentration inputs. Despite uncertainties in current measurements, the results for both approaches show that drinking water can be an important exposure pathway for total Pb exposure in children and infants. Significant decreases in children’s BLLs can result from Pb in drinking water reduction actions.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: Modeled Impacts of Drinking Water Pb Reduction Scenarios on Children’s Exposures and Blood Lead Levels