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THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD: A COMPARISON OF FOUR MODEL PERFORMANCES
Citation:
Bachelet, D. AND C. Gay. THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD: A COMPARISON OF FOUR MODEL PERFORMANCES. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/J-93/155.
Description:
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are expected to modify temperature and rainfall the next 50-100 years. echanisms and hypotheses of plant response to these changes could be incorporated in models predicting crop yield estimates to better understand potential consequences of such changes. sia is particularly important since demographic forecasts indicate rice supplies.worldwide will need to increase by 1.606 annually to the year 2000 to match population growth estimates. he objectives of this paper are (1) review the major hypotheses and/or experimental results regarding rice sensitivity to climate change and (2) evaluate the suitability of existing rice models for assessing the impact of global climate change on rice production. eview of four physiologically-based rice models (RICEMOD, CERES-Rice, MACROS, RICESYS) illustrates their potential to predict rice responses to elevated CO, and increased temperature. ICEMOD does not respond to increases in C02 nor to large increases in temperature. oth MACROS and CERES (wetland rice) responses to temperature and CO, agree with recent experimental data. ICESYS is an ecosystem model which predicts herbivory and interspecies competition between rice and weeds but does not respond to CO2. ts response to increasing temperature also agrees with experimental data.