Citation:

Coffey, Rory, M. Paul, J. Stamp, A. Hamilton, AND T. Johnson. A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 2: Nutrients, Algal Blooms, Sediment, Pathogens. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION. American Water Resources Association, Middleburg, VA, 55(4):844-868, (2019). https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12711

Impact/Purpose:

An improved understanding of water quality responses to historical and potential future changes in climatic drivers builds the capacity of EPA to understand and respond to risk. While previous reviews have examined potential water quality responses, less is known about water quality than water quantity. The goals of this review is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to climatic drivers, to characterize future risk and to identify research needs. In this paper, we focus on nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms. It builds on a companion paper which discusses hydrology, water temperature and sea level.

Description:

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens, and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many United States locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

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