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Monetized Health Benefits of Regional Emissions Changes Due to Scenarios of Vehicle Automation
Citation:
Brown, K. AND R. Dodder. Monetized Health Benefits of Regional Emissions Changes Due to Scenarios of Vehicle Automation. 2020 Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 12 - 16, 2020.
Impact/Purpose:
Automated light duty vehicles may lead to changes in energy use and emissions in the United States that vary across different regions. This has implications for air quality because vehicles, electricity generation, and petroleum fuel production all emit air pollution. This study evaluates different scenarios of the future in which most cars are automated. There is significant uncertainty in how automated vehicles may impact transportation, but this study highlights potential air quality issues. These results may be of interest to local governments concerned about transportation related emissions in their area.
Description:
Vehicle automation has the potential to drastically transform the transportation system, which would in turn have energy and environmental implications. The changes in energy and emissions may not be uniform across the U.S. We utilize the nine region MARKet ALlocation or MARKAL model to examine scenarios of vehicle automation that consider different effects on vehicle efficiency and travel demands, and provide additional insights on fuel switching, upstream impacts, and air emissions. Model results suggest that automation scenarios with an increase in travel demands may lead to increased market penetration of alternative-fuel vehicles. However, the alternative vehicles will vary by region based on local fuel availability. Increased driving may also increase emissions, both from vehicles and associated with fuel production. Within a single scenario, the air quality effects of automation will vary across regions. The increase in air pollutant emissions could offset a portion of the benefits of automation.