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TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS
Citation:
Robinson, P. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA/600/3-91/049.
Description:
A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, and the frequency with which user-selected high- and low-temperature thresholds are crossed. inear regressions between monthly average temperature and these various attributes are established by using the observational record of daily maximum and minimum temperature. hese regressions are then used to, estimate values from the monthly average temperatures estimated by General Circulation; Models to occur as a result of a doubling of atmospheric CO2. alues can be established, for any location having daily temperature records. or the United States the station density is sufficient to allow the creation of detailed regional scenarios on the spatial] and temporal scales required for impact assessment. he assumptions, scientific and statistical, inherent in this regression-based approach are reviewed. he method has been incorporated into a self-contained PC-based computer program requiring only the actual temperature data to be input by the user. emonstration of the use of the program, incorporating discussion of techniques for evaluating the quality of the resultant scenario, is provided.